ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-27 10:00

Tommy Paul v Andrey Rublev

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

T. Paul to win1.62

Worth backing at 1.54 or bigger · our chance 65% · market 58/42, us 65/35

T. Paul is 6-4 over the last ten and 30-16 on hard this season. A. Rublev is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-15 on hard this season. The head to head is T. Paul 0-2.

The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 65% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.54 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

T. Paul		A. Rublev
17	Ranking	23
6-4	Last 10	5-5
LWWLW	Last 5	LLLWW
+0.4	V the odds	-1.5
45-21	Season	35-23
30-16	Hard 2026	18-15
3	Last 7 days	1
3d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-2

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

T. PaulFAV1.6258%

A. Rublev2.2542%

Market says58% Paul

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

T. PaulLWWLW

A. RublevLLLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

T. Paul0

A. Rublev2

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2023-10-11	ATP Shanghai	T. PaulvA. Rublev	5-7 5-7
2022-10-14	Gijon	A. RublevvT. Paul	7-5 6-3

This season & this event

T. Paul

A. Rublev

45-21

30-16

Did not play

Lost R32 to B. Nakashima

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-23

18-15

Lost R32 to C. Norrie

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Tommy Paul

USA

Andrey Rublev

World

USA

42–19

24–13

11–4

6–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

World

33–19

17–11

16–6

0–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

T. Paul — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	T. Fritz	2.65	63%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 PaulFritzPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 39 of 9Aces115Double faults21
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Moutet	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 PaulMoutetPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved10 of 145 of 10Aces43Double faults30
2026-10-21	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	B. Bonzi	1.41	69%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 PaulBonziPoints won54%46%Serve points won78%68%Return points won32%22%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces1810Double faults31
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.91	66%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 PaulMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held9 of 139 of 12Break points saved8 of 1211 of 14Aces716Double faults18
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Bergs	1.48	66%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PaulBergsPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%69%Return points won31%33%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 4Aces34Double faults23
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	V. Vacherot	1.61	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 PaulVacherotPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved6 of 72 of 6Aces49Double faults01
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	D. Vallejo	1.49	65%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 PaulVallejoPoints won62%38%Serve points won64%40%Return points won60%36%Games held6 of 82 of 8Break points saved3 of 54 of 10Aces51Double faults12
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Tabilo	1.35	72%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 PaulTabiloPoints won37%63%Serve points won43%70%Return points won30%57%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved3 of 82 of 3Aces50Double faults61
2026-09-06	US Open	Hard	C. Alcaraz	4.85	80%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 4-6 PaulAlcarazPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved10 of 143 of 4Aces43Double faults12
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	A. Bublik	1.55	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 6-1 6-3 PaulBublikPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%63%Return points won37%29%Games held21 of 2318 of 24Break points saved5 of 72 of 8Aces1016Double faults16

A. Rublev — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Mannarino	1.31	74%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 RublevMannarinoPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%68%Return points won32%37%Games held12 of 1413 of 14Break points saved7 of 95 of 6Aces136Double faults31
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	R. Sakamoto	1.38	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 RublevSakamotoPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%71%Return points won29%33%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 32 of 2Aces98Double faults21
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	2.09	54%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 2-6 3-6 RublevMinaurPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held8 of 129 of 12Break points saved7 of 119 of 12Aces71Double faults21
2026-10-03	Beijing	Hard	R. Safiullin	1.71	57%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-4 RublevSafiullinPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held12 of 1311 of 14Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces1215Double faults13
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	T. Griekspoor	1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set6-4 5-7 7-6 RublevGriekspoorPoints won50%50%Serve points won71%72%Return points won28%29%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved4 of 55 of 6Aces1919Double faults24
2026-09-29	Hangzhou	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 RublevMedvedevPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%72%Return points won28%33%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces423Double faults12
2026-09-28	Hangzhou	Hard	K. Jacquet	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 RublevJacquetPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%63%Return points won37%20%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces56Double faults11
2026-09-27	Hangzhou	Hard	H. Gaston	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-6 6-1 RublevGastonPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held13 of 1610 of 15Break points saved3 of 610 of 15Aces115Double faults45
2026-09-25	Hangzhou	Hard	R. Hijikata	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 RublevHijikataPoints won59%41%Serve points won82%56%Return points won44%18%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces123Double faults01
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	D. Merida Aguilar	1.67	59%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 2-6 4-6 4-6 RublevAguilarPoints won47%53%Serve points won61%67%Return points won33%39%Games held15 of 2019 of 20Break points saved6 of 115 of 6Aces139Double faults89

Common questions

Who is favourite, Tommy Paul or Andrey Rublev?

Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.62, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev?

Tommy Paul is 1.62 and Andrey Rublev is 2.25, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

What is the head-to-head between Tommy Paul and Andrey Rublev?

They have met 2 times and Andrey Rublev leads 2-0.

Who will win Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev?

Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 1.62 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Berrettini v Etcheverry Cobolli v Dimitrov Darderi v Arnaldi Griekspoor v Nakashima Khachanov v Alcaraz Aguilar v Medvedev