Karen Khachanov v Carlos Alcaraz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanC. Alcaraz is 8-2 over the last ten and 28-4 on hard this season. K. Khachanov is 6-4 over the last ten and 20-15 on hard this season. The head to head is K. Khachanov 0-6.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win. We make it a 82% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.22 or bigger. At 1.17 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| K. Khachanov | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Ranking | 3 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| LWWLW | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| +0.3 | V the odds | -0.3 |
| 29-24 | Season | 34-5 |
| 20-15 | Hard 2026 | 28-4 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 4d | Days rest | 15d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-6 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Doha | C. AlcarazvK. Khachanov | 6-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-05-13 | Rome | K. KhachanovvC. Alcaraz | 3-6 6-3 5-7 |
| 2024-09-30 | ATP Beijing | K. KhachanovvC. Alcaraz | 5-7 2-6 |
| 2023-05-03 | ATP Madrid | C. AlcarazvK. Khachanov | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2022-07-22 | Hamburg | C. AlcarazvK. Khachanov | 6-2 |
| 2022-05-29 | French Open | K. KhachanovvC. Alcaraz | 1-6 4-6 4-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
K. Khachanov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | 2.05 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-7 KhachanovBublikPoints won50%50%Serve points won75%78%Return points won22%25%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved5 of 54 of 5Aces821Double faults53 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Machac | 1.38 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 4-6 7-6 KhachanovMachacPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved14 of 154 of 6Aces143Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | R. Sakamoto | 1.39 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 KhachanovSakamotoPoints won61%39%Serve points won88%54%Return points won46%12%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 07 of 10Aces95Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2.13 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 KhachanovMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won65%75%Return points won25%35%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved1 of 31 of 1Aces34Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1.30 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 KhachanovMannarinoPoints won60%40%Serve points won76%55%Return points won45%24%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 10 of 4Aces103Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Fery | 1.44 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-7 7-6 KhachanovFeryPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%63%Return points won37%38%Games held15 of 1815 of 18Break points saved8 of 1110 of 13Aces116Double faults27 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1.68 | 58% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 2-6 KhachanovHurkaczPoints won44%56%Serve points won66%75%Return points won25%34%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved0 of 21 of 1Aces78Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | A. Molcan | 1.23 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-3 KhachanovMolcanPoints won59%41%Serve points won85%67%Return points won33%15%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 01 of 3Aces71Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2.34 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 KhachanovAuger-AliassimePoints won59%41%Serve points won80%60%Return points won40%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 01 of 4Aces49Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | A. Zverev | 5.25 | 81% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-7 6-7 KhachanovZverevPoints won49%51%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held14 of 1616 of 17Break points saved1 of 31 of 2Aces615Double faults36 | |||||||
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.07 | 91% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-7 AlcarazBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 40 of 2Aces59Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 AlcarazCerundoloPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%61%Return points won39%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces82Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 AlcarazLeheckaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%68%Return points won32%21%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces47Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1.12 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-1 AlcarazMunarPoints won54%46%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 10Aces32Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | RET | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
Games in each set7-6 2-1 AlcarazShapovalovPoints won55%45%Serve points won57%48%Return points won52%43%Games held5 of 84 of 7Break points saved1 of 44 of 7Aces01Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 1.07 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 AlcarazArnaldiPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 34 of 7Aces11Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Michelsen | 1.17 | 83% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-1 AlcarazMichelsenPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%53%Return points won47%40%Games held10 of 158 of 14Break points saved8 of 137 of 13Aces50Double faults54 | |||||||
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 1.31 | 73% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 4-6 13-11 AlcarazFritzPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%57%Return points won43%39%Games held7 of 97 of 10Break points saved2 of 45 of 8Aces34Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 1.28 | 76% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 1-6 3-6 6-1 6-7 AlcarazSheltonPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%65%Return points won35%38%Games held19 of 2420 of 23Break points saved11 of 168 of 11Aces37Double faults72 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 1.22 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 6-4 AlcarazPaulPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%56%Return points won44%29%Games held14 of 1510 of 14Break points saved3 of 410 of 14Aces34Double faults21 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Karen Khachanov or Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.17, which is a 81% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Karen Khachanov is 5.00 and Carlos Alcaraz is 1.17, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
What is the head-to-head between Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz?
They have met 6 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-0.
Who will win Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win at 1.17 (Lean confidence).