ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-27 10:00

Luciano Darderi v Matteo Arnaldi

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

L. Darderi to win2.13

Worth backing at 1.89 or bigger · our chance 53% · market 46/54, us 53/47

L. Darderi is 5-5 over the last ten and 17-15 on hard this season. M. Arnaldi is 3-7 over the last ten and 4-11 on hard this season. The head to head is L. Darderi 2-1.

The pick is L. Darderi to win. We make it a 53% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.89 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

L. Darderi		M. Arnaldi
21	Ranking	38
5-5	Last 10	3-7
LLLWL	Last 5	LLWLW
+0.2	V the odds	-1.0
35-27	Season	20-19
17-15	Hard 2026	4-11
1	Last 7 days	0
6d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

L. Darderi2.1346%

M. ArnaldiFAV1.7854%

Market says54% Arnaldi

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

L. DarderiLLLWL

M. ArnaldiLLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

L. Darderi2

M. Arnaldi1

Head to head3 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2024-05-18	Turin 2 Challenger Men	M. ArnaldivL. Darderi	2-6 6-2 3-6
2022-03-21	Zadar	L. DarderivM. Arnaldi	5-7 7-5 2-6
2020-06-29	Italian Championship 2	M. ArnaldivL. Darderi	4-6 4-6

This season & this event

L. Darderi

M. Arnaldi

35-27

17-15

Lost R32 to B. Nakashima

Lost R16 to J. Draper

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

20-19

4-11

Lost R16 to A. Zverev

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Luciano Darderi

Italy

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

35–23

12–10

22–11

1–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Italy

20–18

4–9

14–7

2–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

L. Darderi — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	J. Duckworth	1.89	51%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 DarderiDuckworthPoints won46%54%Serve points won67%74%Return points won26%33%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved1 of 21 of 1Aces617Double faults12
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	3.08	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 DarderiTsitsipasPoints won44%56%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces416Double faults02
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.70	56%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 DarderiJacquetPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%79%Return points won21%36%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 60 of 0Aces115Double faults01
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	C. Ruud	2.90	67%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 DarderiRuudPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved6 of 85 of 8Aces1311Double faults34
2026-09-08	US Open	Hard	A. Zverev	8.51	89%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 6-7 DarderiZverevPoints won42%58%Serve points won58%78%Return points won22%42%Games held10 of 1414 of 14Break points saved13 of 171 of 1Aces913Double faults75
2026-09-05	US Open	Hard	D. Sweeny	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 6-3 DarderiSweenyPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%53%Return points won47%34%Games held12 of 148 of 14Break points saved6 of 82 of 8Aces72Double faults44
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	D. Svrcina	1.72	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-7 6-4 6-4 DarderiSvrcinaPoints won53%47%Serve points won55%50%Return points won50%45%Games held14 of 2110 of 20Break points saved13 of 2011 of 21Aces1611Double faults920
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	H. Wendelken	1.31	74%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5 DarderiWendelkenPoints won53%47%Serve points won60%55%Return points won45%40%Games held15 of 1911 of 18Break points saved13 of 1713 of 20Aces1510Double faults57
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 0-6 DarderiZandschulpPoints won37%63%Serve points won40%66%Return points won34%60%Games held1 of 67 of 7Break points saved3 of 81 of 1Aces012Double faults35
2026-08-25	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Bellucci	1.88	52%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-2 DarderiBellucciPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%62%Return points won38%34%Games held11 of 1310 of 13Break points saved5 of 79 of 12Aces38Double faults53

M. Arnaldi — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. Musetti		2.80	65%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 ArnaldiMusettiPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%70%Return points won30%45%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved1 of 56 of 6Aces05Double faults12
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	T. Fritz		4.27	77%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 ArnaldiFritzPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved4 of 74 of 5Aces49Double faults00
2026-10-08	Shanghai	Hard	B. Tomic		1.46	67%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 ArnaldiTomicPoints won62%38%Serve points won76%52%Return points won48%24%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved4 of 43 of 7Aces62Double faults00
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	C. Alcaraz		10.41	91%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 ArnaldiAlcarazPoints won45%55%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 72 of 3Aces11Double faults11
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	R. Sakamoto		2.12	54%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 ArnaldiSakamotoPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%66%Return points won34%35%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved2 of 41 of 3Aces48Double faults41
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	J. Duckworth		1.61	60%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 2-6 6-7 ArnaldiDuckworthPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%63%Return points won37%41%Games held14 of 2017 of 21Break points saved13 of 1911 of 15Aces516Double faults74
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Landaluce		2.18	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 4-6 ArnaldiLandalucePoints won49%51%Serve points won56%58%Return points won42%44%Games held9 of 1510 of 15Break points saved8 of 144 of 9Aces84Double faults47
2026-08-07	Montreal	Hard	T. Griekspoor		2.84	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 4-6 3-6 ArnaldiGriekspoorPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 91 of 5Aces104Double faults45
2026-08-05	Montreal	Hard	F. Marozsan		2.30	58%	WON
Games in each set7-5 2-6 6-4 ArnaldiMarozsanPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%68%Return points won32%37%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved2 of 55 of 8Aces54Double faults72
2026-07-27	Washington	Hard	L. Musetti	RET	2.44	60%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 1-3 ArnaldiMusettiPoints won28%72%Serve points won37%83%Return points won17%63%Games held1 of 55 of 5Break points saved3 of 70 of 0Aces33Double faults20

Common questions

Who is favourite, Luciano Darderi or Matteo Arnaldi?

Matteo Arnaldi is favourite at 1.78, which is a 54% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi?

Luciano Darderi is 2.13 and Matteo Arnaldi is 1.78, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

What is the head-to-head between Luciano Darderi and Matteo Arnaldi?

They have met 3 times and Luciano Darderi leads 2-1.

Who will win Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi?

Our model makes it Luciano Darderi to win at 2.13 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Berrettini v Etcheverry Cobolli v Dimitrov Griekspoor v Nakashima Khachanov v Alcaraz Aguilar v Medvedev Musetti v Tiafoe