ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-27 10:00

Lorenzo Musetti v Frances Tiafoe

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

F. Tiafoe to win1.90

Worth backing at 1.75 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 50/50, us 43/57

F. Tiafoe is 7-3 over the last ten and 28-14 on hard this season. L. Musetti is 7-3 over the last ten and 20-9 on hard this season. The head to head is L. Musetti 2-4.

The pick is F. Tiafoe to win. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.75 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

L. Musetti		F. Tiafoe
7	Ranking	8
7-3	Last 10	7-3
WWWWL	Last 5	LWLWL
+0.1	V the odds	+1.2
24-12	Season	44-20
20-9	Hard 2026	28-14
3	Last 7 days	0
3d	Days rest	15d
0	Wins here	0
Defending semi	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-4

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

L. MusettiFAV1.9050%

F. Tiafoe1.9050%

Market says50% Musetti

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

L. MusettiWWWWW

F. TiafoeLWLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

L. Musetti2

F. Tiafoe4

Head to head6 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-08-22	Cincinnati	L. MusettivF. Tiafoe	6-7 5-7
2025-06-03	French Open	L. MusettivF. Tiafoe	6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2
2024-08-15	ATP Cincinnati	L. MusettivF. Tiafoe	3-6 2-6
2023-06-16	ATP Stuttgart	L. MusettivF. Tiafoe	7-6 6-7 2-6
2023-05-16	ATP Rome	L. MusettivF. Tiafoe	5-7 6-4 6-3
2020-10-07	Parma	F. TiafoevL. Musetti	6-3 3-6 6-3

This season & this event

L. Musetti

Defending semi

F. Tiafoe

25-12

21-9

Lost SF to A. Zverev

Lost SF to J. Draper

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

44-20

28-14

Did not play

Lost R16 to M. Berrettini

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

Frances Tiafoe

USA

Italy

20–12

14–8

6–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

USA

43–18

27–12

7–4

9–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

L. Musetti — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-25	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	T. Fritz	2.84	66%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MusettiFritzPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces46Double faults00
2026-10-24	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cobolli	2.16	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 7-5 MusettiCobolliPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved8 of 90 of 3Aces54Double faults20
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.46	67%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-4 MusettiAsschePoints won51%49%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved3 of 46 of 8Aces67Double faults12
2026-10-21	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kouame	1.27	77%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MusettiKouamePoints won55%45%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces26Double faults03
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	M. Arnaldi	1.49	65%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 MusettiArnaldiPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 5Aces50Double faults21
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	Y. Zhou	1.23	79%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-7 MusettiZhouPoints won52%48%Serve points won76%69%Return points won31%24%Games held17 of 1715 of 16Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces514Double faults30
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	D. Sweeny	1.04	93%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 1-6 2-6 2-6 MusettiSweenyPoints won44%56%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held8 of 1613 of 16Break points saved9 of 177 of 10Aces65Double faults72
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	A. Fery	1.29	75%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 7-5 MusettiFeryPoints won58%42%Serve points won73%55%Return points won45%27%Games held13 of 159 of 15Break points saved4 of 63 of 9Aces70Double faults45
2026-08-22	Cincinnati	Hard	F. Tiafoe	1.87	52%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 MusettiTiafoePoints won47%53%Serve points won57%65%Return points won35%43%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved5 of 82 of 4Aces44Double faults42
2026-08-20	Cincinnati	Hard	J. Faria	1.35	72%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 MusettiFariaPoints won59%41%Serve points won76%55%Return points won45%24%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved0 of 10 of 4Aces64Double faults14

F. Tiafoe — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina	1.94	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7 TiafoeFokinaPoints won50%50%Serve points won70%71%Return points won29%30%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved1 of 16 of 7Aces138Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	Y. Hanfmann	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 TiafoeHanfmannPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 30 of 3Aces58Double faults02
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	3.42	72%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 TiafoeFilsPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%74%Return points won26%36%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved3 of 52 of 2Aces410Double faults31
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	K. Nishikori	1.18	82%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 TiafoeNishikoriPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%65%Return points won35%30%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 14 of 7Aces26Double faults32
2026-09-11	US Open	Hard	B. Shelton	3.44	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 3-6 5-7 TiafoeSheltonPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%71%Return points won29%39%Games held15 of 2018 of 20Break points saved6 of 115 of 7Aces320Double faults23
2026-09-08	US Open	Hard	A. Michelsen	1.67	59%	WON
Games in each set5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6 TiafoeMichelsenPoints won50%50%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held19 of 2719 of 27Break points saved15 of 239 of 17Aces1021Double faults49
2026-09-06	US Open	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.51	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 7-6 TiafoeMedvedevPoints won51%49%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held13 of 1712 of 17Break points saved5 of 94 of 9Aces414Double faults05
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	V. Vacherot	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 6-4 TiafoeVacherotPoints won58%42%Serve points won78%59%Return points won41%22%Games held14 of 1410 of 14Break points saved3 of 34 of 8Aces612Double faults27
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	R. Sakamoto	1.28	76%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 7-5 TiafoeSakamotoPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%63%Return points won37%35%Games held15 of 1712 of 16Break points saved3 of 54 of 8Aces718Double faults43
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	M. Damm	1.24	78%	WON
Games in each set6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4 TiafoeDammPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%66%Return points won34%34%Games held22 of 2421 of 24Break points saved4 of 66 of 9Aces1228Double faults611

Common questions

Who is favourite, Lorenzo Musetti or Frances Tiafoe?

Lorenzo Musetti is favourite at 1.90, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe?

Lorenzo Musetti is 1.90 and Frances Tiafoe is 1.90, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

What is the head-to-head between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe?

They have met 6 times and Frances Tiafoe leads 4-2.

Who will win Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe?

Our model makes it Frances Tiafoe to win at 1.90 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Berrettini v Etcheverry Cobolli v Dimitrov Darderi v Arnaldi Griekspoor v Nakashima Khachanov v Alcaraz Aguilar v Medvedev