ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-27 10:00

Flavio Cobolli v Grigor Dimitrov

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

F. Cobolli to win1.50

Worth backing at 1.45 or bigger · our chance 69% · market 64/36, us 69/31

F. Cobolli is 4-6 over the last ten and 21-15 on hard this season. G. Dimitrov is 4-6 over the last ten and 6-14 on hard this season. F. Cobolli took a medical timeout on 2026-10-24.

The pick is F. Cobolli to win. We make it a 69% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.45 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Cobolli		G. Dimitrov
7	Ranking	127
4-6	Last 10	4-6
LWWLL	Last 5	LLWLW
-1.6	V the odds	-2.5
36-24	Season	13-21
21-15	Hard 2026	6-14
3	Last 7 days	0
3d	Days rest	36d
0	Wins here	0
MTO	Fitness	36d out
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. CobolliFAV1.5064%

G. Dimitrov2.6336%

Market says64% Cobolli

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. CobolliLWWLL

G. DimitrovLLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

F. Cobolli

G. Dimitrov

36-24

21-15

Lost R16 to J. Sinner

Lost R16 to A. De Minaur

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

13-21

6-14

Did not play

Lost R16 to T. Machac

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

Grigor Dimitrov

Bulgaria

Italy

33–21

15–12

14–7

4–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

127

Bulgaria

13–18

4–8

1–6

7–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Cobolli — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. Musetti	1.78	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 2-6 5-7 CobolliMusettiPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held12 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 38 of 9Aces45Double faults02
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	B. Nakashima	2.45	60%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-4 CobolliNakashimaPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved3 of 57 of 10Aces313Double faults21
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	S. Wawrinka	1.35	72%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 CobolliWawrinkaPoints won59%41%Serve points won78%60%Return points won40%22%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 11 of 4Aces36Double faults20
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Mannarino	1.53	63%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-4 3-6 CobolliMannarinoPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held8 of 1311 of 13Break points saved5 of 107 of 9Aces105Double faults20
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	R. Safiullin	1.91	51%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 CobolliSafiullinPoints won42%58%Serve points won53%69%Return points won31%47%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved8 of 115 of 5Aces47Double faults20
2026-09-26	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	L. Tien	2.74	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 7-10 CobolliTienPoints won50%50%Serve points won54%55%Return points won45%46%Games held6 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 64 of 7Aces01Double faults54
2026-09-05	US Open	Hard	A. Blockx	1.89	52%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 3-6 0-6 3-6 CobolliBlockxPoints won40%60%Serve points won52%76%Return points won24%48%Games held10 of 1816 of 18Break points saved13 of 215 of 7Aces517Double faults54
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	T. Schoolkate	1.19	82%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5 CobolliSchoolkatePoints won55%45%Serve points won74%63%Return points won37%26%Games held18 of 2016 of 20Break points saved0 of 22 of 6Aces104Double faults44
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	F. Comesana	1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set3-6 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-4 CobolliComesanaPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%61%Return points won39%41%Games held17 of 2317 of 23Break points saved13 of 1912 of 18Aces712Double faults57
2026-08-22	Cincinnati	Hard	A. Fils	3.23	70%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 CobolliFilsPoints won45%55%Serve points won63%69%Return points won31%37%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved1 of 41 of 2Aces26Double faults13

G. Dimitrov — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	E. Butvilas	1.44	67%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 DimitrovButvilasPoints won48%52%Serve points won64%70%Return points won30%36%Games held9 of 1110 of 10Break points saved4 of 63 of 3Aces77Double faults61
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	H. Rune	1.70	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-7 DimitrovRunePoints won49%51%Serve points won64%70%Return points won30%36%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved9 of 121 of 4Aces115Double faults32
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	E. Moller	1.25	76%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-4 DimitrovMollerPoints won52%48%Serve points won77%71%Return points won29%23%Games held15 of 1612 of 15Break points saved3 of 47 of 10Aces127Double faults23
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	A. Popyrin	1.52	64%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 2-6 4-6 DimitrovPopyrinPoints won47%53%Serve points won59%66%Return points won34%41%Games held12 of 1815 of 18Break points saved2 of 85 of 8Aces911Double faults142
2026-08-26	US Open	Hard	T. Skatov	1.16	82%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 DimitrovSkatovPoints won53%47%Serve points won77%65%Return points won35%23%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 15 of 6Aces174Double faults44
2026-08-25	US Open	Hard	L. Giustino	1.09	87%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-3 DimitrovGiustinoPoints won66%34%Serve points won83%47%Return points won53%17%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved2 of 20 of 5Aces51Double faults14
2026-08-14	Cincinnati	Hard	S. Baez	1.68	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 DimitrovBaezPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%64%Return points won36%33%Games held10 of 1310 of 13Break points saved3 of 66 of 9Aces61Double faults72
2026-07-15	Bastad	Clay	N. Borges	2.77	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 DimitrovBorgesPoints won40%60%Serve points won51%70%Return points won30%49%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved1 of 51 of 2Aces24Double faults21
2026-07-14	Bastad	Clay	D. Svrcina	1.62	60%	WON
Games in each set7-6 1-6 6-4 DimitrovSvrcinaPoints won47%53%Serve points won52%57%Return points won43%48%Games held8 of 159 of 14Break points saved0 of 74 of 9Aces34Double faults84
2026-07-06	Wimbledon	Grass	A. Fery	1.42	69%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-4 4-6 6-7 DimitrovFeryPoints won52%48%Serve points won69%64%Return points won36%31%Games held23 of 2722 of 26Break points saved5 of 95 of 9Aces197Double faults70

Common questions

Who is favourite, Flavio Cobolli or Grigor Dimitrov?

Flavio Cobolli is favourite at 1.50, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov?

Flavio Cobolli is 1.50 and Grigor Dimitrov is 2.63, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

Who will win Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov?

Our model makes it Flavio Cobolli to win at 1.50 (Lean confidence).

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