Daniel Merida Aguilar v Daniil Medvedev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidD. Merida Aguilar is 6-4 over the last ten and 24-11 on hard this season. D. Medvedev is 9-1 over the last ten and 39-10 on hard this season. D. Medvedev took a medical timeout on 2026-10-12. The head to head is D. Merida Aguilar 0-1.
The pick is D. Merida Aguilar to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.79 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Merida Aguilar | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Ranking | 5 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 9-1 |
| LWLWW | Last 5 | WWWLW |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +1.4 |
| 44-21 | Season | 48-17 |
| 24-11 | Hard 2026 | 39-10 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 20d | Days rest | 3d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Wimbledon | D. Merida AguilarvD. Medvedev | 6-3 3-6 5-7 2-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Merida Aguilar — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.96 | 50% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 AguilarZandschulpPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%58%Return points won42%41%Games held9 of 139 of 13Break points saved0 of 43 of 7Aces60Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | A. Tabilo | 2.12 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-3 AguilarTabiloPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 65 of 8Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2.68 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 3-6 AguilarMichelsenPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held12 of 1614 of 15Break points saved3 of 74 of 5Aces86Double faults71 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | A. Rublev | 2.36 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4 AguilarRublevPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held19 of 2015 of 20Break points saved5 of 66 of 11Aces913Double faults98 | |||||||
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | M. Fucsovics | 1.23 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-2 AguilarFucsovicsPoints won57%43%Serve points won72%53%Return points won47%28%Games held13 of 138 of 13Break points saved0 of 08 of 13Aces30Double faults211 | |||||||
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Fritz | 4.65 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 AguilarFritzPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces28Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.86 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-2 AguilarBergsPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 30 of 3Aces22Double faults96 | |||||||
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Cilic | 1.68 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-1 AguilarCilicPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held10 of 117 of 12Break points saved4 of 52 of 7Aces95Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-08-12 | Montreal | Hard | L. Tien | 2.78 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 2-6 AguilarTienPoints won40%60%Serve points won49%69%Return points won31%51%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved4 of 82 of 3Aces00Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-08-09 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2.13 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-1 AguilarGriekspoorPoints won62%38%Serve points won78%51%Return points won49%22%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved2 of 24 of 8Aces33Double faults16 | |||||||
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.24 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-3 MedvedevBasilashviliPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held14 of 1410 of 14Break points saved2 of 26 of 10Aces223Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | RET | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
Games in each set6-3 MedvedevBublikPoints won61%39%Serve points won87%67%Return points won33%13%Games held5 of 53 of 4Break points saved0 of 01 of 2Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Atmane | 1.16 | 84% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MedvedevAtmanePoints won58%42%Serve points won82%60%Return points won40%18%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 06 of 8Aces54Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Shimabukuro | 1.06 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MedvedevShimabukuroPoints won66%34%Serve points won79%46%Return points won54%21%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved3 of 35 of 10Aces71Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 1.55 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MedvedevJodarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 74 of 6Aces36Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 6-3 MedvedevPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%57%Return points won43%40%Games held9 of 129 of 13Break points saved11 of 148 of 12Aces167Double faults81 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-5 MedvedevTsitsipasPoints won54%46%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces84Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.13 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MedvedevSvrcinaPoints won56%44%Serve points won64%50%Return points won50%36%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved3 of 44 of 9Aces62Double faults56 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J-L. Struff | 1.14 | 85% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 MedvedevStruffPoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held13 of 1511 of 14Break points saved4 of 63 of 6Aces217Double faults51 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 MedvedevCerundoloPoints won56%44%Serve points won76%59%Return points won41%24%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved1 of 27 of 9Aces100Double faults12 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Daniel Merida Aguilar or Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.20, which is a 79% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Daniel Merida Aguilar is 4.50 and Daniil Medvedev is 1.20, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
What is the head-to-head between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev?
They have met 1 time and Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0.
Who will win Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model makes it Daniel Merida Aguilar to win a set (Solid confidence).