ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-27 10:00

Matteo Berrettini v Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

T. M. Etcheverry to win2.50

Worth backing at 2.22 or bigger · our chance 45% · market 61/39, us 55/45

T. M. Etcheverry is 3-7 over the last ten and 13-15 on hard this season. M. Berrettini is 4-6 over the last ten and 9-11 on hard this season. M. Berrettini took a medical timeout on 2026-10-20.

The pick is T. M. Etcheverry to win. We make it a 45% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.22 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Berrettini		T. M. Etcheverry
47	Ranking	31
4-6	Last 10	3-7
LLWLW	Last 5	LLLLL
-1.6	V the odds	-1.7
22-20	Season	27-26
9-11	Hard 2026	13-15
1	Last 7 days	0
7d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
MTO	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. BerrettiniFAV1.5861%

T. M. Etcheverry2.5039%

Market says61% Berrettini

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. BerrettiniLLWLW

T. M. EtcheverryLLLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Berrettini

T. M. Etcheverry

22-20

9-11

Lost QF to A. De Minaur

Lost QF to K. Khachanov

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

27-26

13-15

Lost R16 to L. Musetti

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

Italy

20–17

6–6

12–10

2–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

26–25

8–12

18–10

0–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Berrettini — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	K. Jacquet	1.75	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniJacquetPoints won48%52%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 15 of 5Aces1316Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	B. Nakashima	2.40	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 3Aces125Double faults41
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	A. Kovacevic	1.52	64%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniKovacevicPoints won58%42%Serve points won84%59%Return points won41%16%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces233Double faults44
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo	1.62	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 BerrettiniVallejoPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces45Double faults00
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina	2.32	58%	WON
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-4 BerrettiniFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 71 of 3Aces164Double faults12
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Navone	1.57	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 6-7 BerrettiniNavonePoints won48%52%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held17 of 2018 of 20Break points saved4 of 77 of 9Aces155Double faults64
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	S. Wawrinka	1.27	76%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 6-0 BerrettiniWawrinkaPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%56%Return points won44%32%Games held13 of 1510 of 15Break points saved11 of 132 of 7Aces137Double faults36
2026-08-16	Cincinnati	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.55	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 7-6 3-6 BerrettiniLeheckaPoints won48%52%Serve points won74%75%Return points won25%26%Games held13 of 1516 of 16Break points saved4 of 64 of 4Aces712Double faults01
2026-08-14	Cincinnati	Hard	T. Droguet	1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniDroguetPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%64%Return points won36%30%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved1 of 23 of 6Aces97Double faults43
2026-08-03	Montreal	Hard	M. Navone	1.48	66%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 3-6 BerrettiniNavonePoints won48%52%Serve points won66%64%Return points won36%34%Games held11 of 1415 of 16Break points saved2 of 511 of 12Aces41Double faults22

T. M. Etcheverry — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Bellucci	2.09	53%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-2 4-6 EtcheverryBellucciPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%67%Return points won33%26%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved5 of 67 of 9Aces1015Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	D. Svrcina	1.66	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 5-7 EtcheverrySvrcinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%62%Return points won38%37%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 910 of 13Aces113Double faults14
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	3.53	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 EtcheverryTsitsipasPoints won45%55%Serve points won68%81%Return points won19%32%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces59Double faults10
2026-09-26	Hangzhou	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.61	60%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 EtcheverryJacquetPoints won44%56%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 95 of 6Aces37Double faults12
2026-09-06	US Open	Hard	A. Michelsen	3.38	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 4-6 EtcheverryMichelsenPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%71%Return points won29%34%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved1 of 44 of 5Aces612Double faults07
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	M. Navone	1.77	55%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-3 EtcheverryNavonePoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held14 of 1510 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 8Aces84Double faults11
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	J. Fearnley	1.75	56%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3 EtcheverryFearnleyPoints won53%47%Serve points won61%55%Return points won45%39%Games held14 of 1811 of 18Break points saved8 of 1211 of 18Aces910Double faults511
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	V. Kopriva	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 6-0 EtcheverryKoprivaPoints won64%36%Serve points won67%40%Return points won60%33%Games held11 of 135 of 12Break points saved1 of 33 of 10Aces106Double faults24
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	T. Atmane	2.62	63%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 EtcheverryAtmanePoints won46%54%Serve points won76%75%Return points won25%24%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 14 of 4Aces610Double faults03
2026-08-05	Montreal	Hard	N. Borges	2.52	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 EtcheverryBorgesPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%75%Return points won25%45%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved11 of 142 of 2Aces28Double faults42

Common questions

Who is favourite, Matteo Berrettini or Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Matteo Berrettini is favourite at 1.58, which is a 61% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Matteo Berrettini is 1.58 and Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 2.50, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Our model makes it Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win at 2.50 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Cobolli v Dimitrov Darderi v Arnaldi Griekspoor v Nakashima Khachanov v Alcaraz Aguilar v Medvedev Musetti v Tiafoe