ChallengerHardBrest · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Stefano Travaglia v Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

P. Herbert to win 2-01.95

Price too short today - wait for 2.11 or bigger · our chance 47% · market 29/71, us 23/77

P. Herbert is 5-5 over the last ten and 14-12 on hard this season. S. Travaglia is 3-7 over the last ten and 13-10 on hard this season. P. Herbert took a medical timeout on 2026-10-22.

The pick is P. Herbert to win 2-0. We make it a 47% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.11 or bigger. At 1.95 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Travaglia		P. Herbert
158	Ranking	296
3-7	Last 10	5-5
LWWLL	Last 5	LWWWL
-2.1	V the odds	+0.9
29-27	Season	21-21
13-10	Hard 2026	14-12
0	Last 7 days	2
11d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. Travaglia3.2029%

P. HerbertFAV1.2971%

Market says71% Herbert

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. TravagliaLWWLL

P. HerbertLWWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Travaglia

P. Herbert

29-27

13-10

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

21-21

14-12

Did not play

Lost R16 to B. Bonzi

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

France

158

Italy

27–24

11–7

15–16

1–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

296

France

19–20

12–10

5–8

2–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Travaglia — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-16	Olbia	Hard	M. Kasnikowski		2.33	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 TravagliaKasnikowskiPoints won45%55%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved6 of 107 of 8Aces77Double faults31
2026-10-14	Olbia	Hard	V. Royer		3.50	72%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 TravagliaRoyerPoints won59%41%Serve points won73%52%Return points won48%27%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved0 of 13 of 7Aces113Double faults02
2026-10-13	Olbia	Hard	V. Durasovic		1.41	69%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 6-3 TravagliaDurasovicPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%64%Return points won36%34%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved2 of 42 of 5Aces1110Double faults17
2026-09-21	Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Moeller		1.70	54%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 2-6 TravagliaMoellerPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%61%Return points won39%46%Games held9 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 94 of 7Aces62Double faults43
2026-09-14	Szczecin	Clay	T. Monteiro		2.04	53%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 TravagliaMonteiroPoints won45%55%Serve points won60%69%Return points won31%40%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved3 of 54 of 5Aces75Double faults31
2026-09-10	Genova	Clay	E. Dalla Valle		1.83	53%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 1-6 4-6 TravagliaVallePoints won47%53%Serve points won59%65%Return points won35%41%Games held9 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 95 of 7Aces73Double faults23
2026-09-08	Genova	Clay	S. Napolitano		1.71	56%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 TravagliaNapolitanoPoints won54%46%Serve points won63%55%Return points won45%37%Games held9 of 117 of 11Break points saved3 of 53 of 7Aces90Double faults93
2026-08-24	US Open	Hard	H. Wendelken		2.29	58%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 TravagliaWendelkenPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%61%Return points won39%40%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved2 of 611 of 14Aces72Double faults55
2026-08-11	Todi	Clay	N. Kicker	RET	1.31	73%	LOST
Games in each set6-0 4-6 0-4 TravagliaKickerPoints won49%51%Serve points won48%50%Return points won50%52%Games held5 of 105 of 10Break points saved2 of 74 of 9Aces51Double faults22
2026-08-04	Hagen	Clay	M. Dodig		1.87	51%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 TravagliaDodigPoints won42%58%Serve points won60%80%Return points won20%40%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved8 of 100 of 0Aces34Double faults10

P. Herbert — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	T. Fritz	4.72	79%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 HerbertFritzPoints won42%58%Serve points won57%81%Return points won19%43%Games held7 of 1010 of 10Break points saved8 of 110 of 0Aces55Double faults10
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	S. Baez	1.62	60%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 HerbertBaezPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%59%Return points won41%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved5 of 512 of 14Aces100Double faults31
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	M. Mrva	1.62	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-1 HerbertMrvaPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%54%Return points won46%32%Games held11 of 138 of 13Break points saved1 of 312 of 17Aces85Double faults21
2026-10-18	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	J. Rodionov	2.14	55%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-5 6-0 HerbertRodionovPoints won56%44%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held14 of 1510 of 15Break points saved1 of 27 of 12Aces137Double faults35
2026-10-14	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	H. Gaston	3.11	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 HerbertGastonPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%64%Return points won36%34%Games held11 of 1412 of 14Break points saved5 of 87 of 9Aces74Double faults40
2026-10-13	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	N. Gombos	1.72	56%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HerbertGombosPoints won60%40%Serve points won73%53%Return points won47%27%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved1 of 23 of 7Aces65Double faults12
2026-09-28	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	S. Gueymard Wayenburg	2.42	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 HerbertWayenburgPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%72%Return points won28%36%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved6 of 85 of 5Aces610Double faults01
2026-08-24	Winston-Salem	Hard	L. Sonego	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 3-6 HerbertSonegoPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%66%Return points won34%43%Games held11 of 1512 of 16Break points saved3 of 74 of 8Aces010Double faults87
2026-08-23	Winston-Salem	Hard	Q. Vandecasteele	1.65	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 5-7 HerbertVandecasteelePoints won50%50%Serve points won59%61%Return points won39%41%Games held12 of 1612 of 17Break points saved8 of 124 of 9Aces15Double faults157
2026-08-22	Winston-Salem	Hard	K. Miyoshi	2.12	55%	WON
Games in each set6-2 4-6 6-2 HerbertMiyoshiPoints won53%47%Serve points won58%53%Return points won47%42%Games held10 of 137 of 13Break points saved5 of 87 of 13Aces21Double faults107

Common questions

Who is favourite, Stefano Travaglia or Pierre-Hugues Herbert?

Pierre-Hugues Herbert is favourite at 1.29, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Stefano Travaglia vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?

Stefano Travaglia is 3.20 and Pierre-Hugues Herbert is 1.29, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

Who will win Stefano Travaglia vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?

Our model makes it Pierre-Hugues Herbert to win 2-0 at 1.95 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Damm v Wayenburg Diallo v Basavareddy Gaston v Glinka Grenier v Kouame Martineau v Virtanen Mochizuki v Cina