ChallengerHardBrest · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Hugo Gaston v Daniil Glinka

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

D. Glinka to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.57 or bigger · our chance 64% · market 67/33, us 65/35

D. Glinka is 6-4 over the last ten and 22-19 on hard this season. H. Gaston is 5-5 over the last ten and 17-16 on hard this season.

The pick is D. Glinka to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 64% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.57 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

H. Gaston		D. Glinka
93	Ranking	178
5-5	Last 10	6-4
LLWWL	Last 5	LLWWW
+0.1	V the odds	+0.8
33-29	Season	35-31
17-16	Hard 2026	22-19
0	Last 7 days	0
8d	Days rest	10d
0	Wins here	0
Defending title	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

H. GastonFAV1.3667%

D. Glinka2.8033%

Market says67% Gaston

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

H. GastonLLWWL

D. GlinkaLLWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

H. Gaston

Defending title

D. Glinka

33-29

17-16

Champion

Reached R32

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-31

22-19

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Hugo Gaston

France

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

France

33–28

18–14

12–12

3–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

178

Estonia

35–30

27–19

8–7

0–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

H. Gaston — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	J. Fearnley	2.26	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 0-6 GastonFearnleyPoints won39%61%Serve points won48%71%Return points won29%52%Games held3 of 78 of 8Break points saved5 of 93 of 3Aces02Double faults11
2026-10-16	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	N. Budkov Kjaer	1.75	55%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 GastonKjaerPoints won44%56%Serve points won59%68%Return points won32%41%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 52 of 4Aces55Double faults01
2026-10-14	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	P. Herbert	1.40	69%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 GastonHerbertPoints won50%50%Serve points won64%66%Return points won34%36%Games held12 of 1411 of 14Break points saved7 of 95 of 8Aces47Double faults04
2026-10-12	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	D. Jade	1.18	82%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 GastonJadePoints won64%36%Serve points won71%42%Return points won58%29%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 05 of 10Aces11Double faults12
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	L. Draxl	1.68	57%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 GastonDraxlPoints won46%54%Serve points won53%64%Return points won36%47%Games held6 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 72 of 5Aces210Double faults01
2026-09-27	Hangzhou	Hard	A. Rublev	4.38	78%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 6-7 1-6 GastonRublevPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held10 of 1513 of 16Break points saved10 of 153 of 6Aces511Double faults54
2026-09-26	Hangzhou	Hard	J. Faria	2.56	62%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 GastonFariaPoints won51%49%Serve points won72%66%Return points won34%28%Games held15 of 1615 of 16Break points saved4 of 56 of 7Aces411Double faults16
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	S. Shimabukuro	1.71	57%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 GastonShimabukuroPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%62%Return points won38%32%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved4 of 53 of 6Aces34Double faults13
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	D. Medvedev	6.68	86%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 4-6 GastonMedvedevPoints won44%56%Serve points won57%73%Return points won27%43%Games held10 of 1414 of 14Break points saved4 of 81 of 1Aces010Double faults53
2026-08-27	US Open	Hard	C. Smith	1.72	56%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-4 6-2 GastonSmithPoints won52%48%Serve points won63%57%Return points won43%37%Games held9 of 128 of 12Break points saved0 of 35 of 9Aces43Double faults15

D. Glinka — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-17	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Shevchenko	2.18	56%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 5-7 GlinkaShevchenkoPoints won48%52%Serve points won68%73%Return points won27%32%Games held14 of 1617 of 17Break points saved5 of 71 of 1Aces87Double faults22
2026-10-11	Villena	Clay	L. Djere	2.80	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 GlinkaDjerePoints won45%55%Serve points won61%72%Return points won28%39%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 53 of 4Aces43Double faults00
2026-10-10	Villena	Clay	J. Pinnington Jones	2.40	60%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-6 6-2 GlinkaJonesPoints won52%48%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved4 of 74 of 8Aces56Double faults47
2026-10-09	Villena	Clay	A. Shelbayh	1.68	58%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-3 GlinkaShelbayhPoints won52%48%Serve points won61%59%Return points won41%39%Games held12 of 1611 of 15Break points saved8 of 122 of 6Aces48Double faults74
2026-10-08	Villena	Clay	M. Echargui	1.66	58%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 GlinkaEcharguiPoints won69%31%Serve points won78%39%Return points won61%22%Games held7 of 82 of 7Break points saved5 of 63 of 8Aces32Double faults21
2026-10-05	Villena	Clay	G. Onclin	1.78	54%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-3 GlinkaOnclinPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%61%Return points won39%35%Games held13 of 1410 of 13Break points saved4 of 53 of 6Aces95Double faults72
2026-09-28	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	H. Bernet	1.65	58%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 GlinkaBernetPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%75%Return points won25%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved6 of 80 of 0Aces65Double faults60
2026-09-25	St. Tropez	Hard	D. Prizmic	4.25	78%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 GlinkaPrizmicPoints won47%53%Serve points won53%58%Return points won42%47%Games held7 of 128 of 12Break points saved3 of 83 of 7Aces32Double faults44
2026-09-23	St. Tropez	Hard	U. Blanchet	1.76	52%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-4 GlinkaBlanchetPoints won50%50%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held12 of 1412 of 15Break points saved1 of 32 of 5Aces79Double faults32
2026-09-22	St. Tropez	Hard	D. Jade	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 GlinkaJadePoints won59%41%Serve points won63%45%Return points won55%37%Games held8 of 115 of 10Break points saved2 of 56 of 11Aces62Double faults43

Common questions

Who is favourite, Hugo Gaston or Daniil Glinka?

Hugo Gaston is favourite at 1.36, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Glinka?

Hugo Gaston is 1.36 and Daniil Glinka is 2.80, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

Who will win Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Glinka?

Our model makes it Daniil Glinka to win a set (Lean confidence).

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