ChallengerHardBrest · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Matteo Martineau v Otto Virtanen

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

M. Martineau to win2.50

Worth backing at 2.29 or bigger · our chance 44% · market 37/63, us 44/56

M. Martineau is 6-4 over the last ten and 24-19 on hard this season. O. Virtanen is 4-6 over the last ten and 12-11 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Martineau 0-2.

The pick is M. Martineau to win. We make it a 44% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.29 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Martineau		O. Virtanen
243	Ranking	107
6-4	Last 10	4-6
LLWWW	Last 5	LLWLL
+0.5	V the odds	-2.3
36-33	Season	33-25
24-19	Hard 2026	12-11
1	Last 7 days	0
6d	Days rest	9d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-2

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Martineau2.5037%

O. VirtanenFAV1.4463%

Market says63% Virtanen

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. MartineauLLWWW

O. VirtanenLLWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Martineau0

O. Virtanen2

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-10-11	Roanne	M. MartineauvO. Virtanen	6-7 4-6
2024-10-23	Brest Challenger Men	O. VirtanenvM. Martineau	6-3 6-2

This season & this event

M. Martineau

O. Virtanen

36-33

24-19

Did not play

Lost R16 to O. Virtanen

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

33-25

12-11

Lost R32 to C. Tabur

Champion

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Matteo Martineau

France

Otto Virtanen

Finland

243

France

36–32

24–18

12–14

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

107

Finland

32–23

11–8

7–10

11–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Martineau — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	M25 Sarreguemines	Grass	T. Boogaard	1.24	77%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-1 3-6 MartineauBoogaardPoints won56%44%Serve points won81%63%Return points won37%19%Games held13 of 1512 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 6
2026-10-18	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	M. Brunold	2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 6-7 1-6 MartineauBrunoldPoints won48%52%Serve points won64%66%Return points won34%36%Games held10 of 1311 of 14Break points saved3 of 64 of 7Aces57Double faults30
2026-10-17	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	N. Budkov Kjaer	3.22	70%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 MartineauKjaerPoints won56%44%Serve points won82%65%Return points won35%18%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved0 of 02 of 3Aces142Double faults21
2026-10-16	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	S. Gueymard Wayenburg	3.24	70%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MartineauWayenburgPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%55%Return points won45%28%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 44 of 7Aces610Double faults33
2026-10-15	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	E. Donnet	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-4 6-2 MartineauDonnetPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%64%Return points won36%34%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved3 of 49 of 12Aces1212Double faults32
2026-10-12	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	M. Schoenhaus	2.08	53%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 MartineauSchoenhausPoints won54%46%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved2 of 22 of 4Aces123Double faults53
2026-09-28	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	C. Tabur	2.30	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 MartineauTaburPoints won47%53%Serve points won59%67%Return points won33%41%Games held12 of 1713 of 16Break points saved4 of 92 of 5Aces115Double faults21
2026-09-24	St. Tropez	Hard	D. Masur	1.91	51%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-5 3-6 MartineauMasurPoints won46%54%Serve points won60%68%Return points won32%40%Games held11 of 1513 of 15Break points saved2 of 66 of 8Aces54Double faults63
2026-09-22	St. Tropez	Hard	T. Schoolkate	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-7 7-6 MartineauSchoolkatePoints won50%50%Serve points won69%72%Return points won28%31%Games held17 of 1817 of 18Break points saved5 of 64 of 5Aces1610Double faults93
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	J. Boulais	1.54	62%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 MartineauBoulaisPoints won60%40%Serve points won73%52%Return points won48%27%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved1 of 13 of 7Aces50Double faults33

O. Virtanen — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-18	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	V. Sachko	1.43	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 VirtanenSachkoPoints won45%55%Serve points won56%68%Return points won32%44%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved5 of 86 of 7Aces96Double faults21
2026-10-15	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	D. Stricker	1.73	56%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-5 3-6 VirtanenStrickerPoints won49%51%Serve points won72%74%Return points won26%28%Games held14 of 1616 of 17Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces179Double faults22
2026-10-12	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	R. Bertola	1.36	71%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-5 VirtanenBertolaPoints won55%45%Serve points won71%61%Return points won39%29%Games held11 of 129 of 12Break points saved4 of 56 of 9Aces173Double faults43
2026-09-28	Porto	Clay	T. Pereira	1.32	73%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-2 3-6 VirtanenPereiraPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held9 of 1310 of 14Break points saved8 of 128 of 12Aces32Double faults82
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	V. Vacherot	2.37	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 4-6 VirtanenVacherotPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%66%Return points won34%38%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved10 of 1310 of 13Aces1414Double faults55
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	L. Catarina	1.01	94%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-3 VirtanenCatarinaPoints won66%34%Serve points won82%47%Return points won53%18%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved2 of 23 of 7Aces102Double faults41
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	A. Rublev	5.82	83%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 7-6 0-6 2-6 6-7 VirtanenRublevPoints won44%56%Serve points won59%74%Return points won26%41%Games held18 of 2523 of 25Break points saved17 of 246 of 8Aces1920Double faults73
2026-08-26	US Open	Hard	J. Pinnington Jones	1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set2-6 7-6 6-3 VirtanenJonesPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held11 of 1511 of 14Break points saved3 of 74 of 7Aces74Double faults87
2026-08-24	US Open	Hard	U. Blanchet	1.43	67%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 VirtanenBlanchetPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%66%Return points won34%33%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved6 of 62 of 4Aces151Double faults111
2026-08-19	Cancun 2	Hard	M. Echargui	1.19	81%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 VirtanenEcharguiPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%70%Return points won30%37%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved3 of 52 of 4Aces114Double faults52

Common questions

Who is favourite, Matteo Martineau or Otto Virtanen?

Otto Virtanen is favourite at 1.44, which is a 63% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Matteo Martineau vs Otto Virtanen?

Matteo Martineau is 2.50 and Otto Virtanen is 1.44, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

What is the head-to-head between Matteo Martineau and Otto Virtanen?

They have met 2 times and Otto Virtanen leads 2-0.

Who will win Matteo Martineau vs Otto Virtanen?

Our model makes it Matteo Martineau to win at 2.50 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Damm v Wayenburg Diallo v Basavareddy Gaston v Glinka Grenier v Kouame Mochizuki v Cina Torre v Samuel