ChallengerHardBrest · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Gabriel Diallo v Nishesh Basavareddy

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

N. Basavareddy to win1.53

Price too short today - wait for 1.63 or bigger · our chance 62% · market 40/60, us 38/62

N. Basavareddy is 7-3 over the last ten and 20-9 on hard this season. G. Diallo is 5-5 over the last ten and 6-12 on hard this season.

The pick is N. Basavareddy to win. We make it a 62% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.63 or bigger. At 1.53 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

G. Diallo		N. Basavareddy
40	Ranking	139
5-5	Last 10	7-3
LWLWL	Last 5	LWWLW
-0.2	V the odds	-0.6
11-20	Season	33-15
6-12	Hard 2026	20-9
0	Last 7 days	0
9d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

G. Diallo2.3040%

N. BasavareddyFAV1.5360%

Market says60% Basavareddy

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

G. DialloLWLWL

N. BasavareddyLWWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

G. Diallo

N. Basavareddy

11-20

6-12

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

33-15

20-9

Reached R32

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Gabriel Diallo

Canada

Nishesh Basavareddy

USA

Canada

1–1

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

139

USA

33–14

20–8

13–6

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

G. Diallo — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-18	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	R. Sakamoto		1.97	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 DialloSakamotoPoints won52%48%Serve points won72%65%Return points won35%28%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved7 of 95 of 7Aces1813Double faults03
2026-10-17	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	H. Mayot		2.01	52%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 DialloMayotPoints won57%43%Serve points won84%62%Return points won38%16%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 7Aces103Double faults02
2026-08-05	Montreal	Hard	L. Darderi	RET	1.65	59%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-2 DialloDarderiPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%76%Return points won24%31%Games held7 of 87 of 7Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces52Double faults41
2026-08-04	Montreal	Hard	K. Jacquet		1.85	52%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 DialloJacquetPoints won55%45%Serve points won71%63%Return points won37%29%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 02 of 5Aces52Double faults24
2026-07-28	Los Cabos	Hard	T. Boyer		1.56	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 2-6 DialloBoyerPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%74%Return points won26%42%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved3 of 70 of 1Aces113Double faults43
2026-07-02	Wimbledon	Grass	L. Sonego		1.87	52%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7 7-6 2-6 DialloSonegoPoints won48%52%Serve points won67%74%Return points won26%33%Games held23 of 2724 of 27Break points saved5 of 92 of 5Aces1114Double faults63
2026-06-30	Wimbledon	Grass	B. Bonzi	RET	1.94	50%	WON
Games in each set1-6 4-6 7-6 6-3 3-1 DialloBonziPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%70%Return points won30%37%Games held16 of 2018 of 22Break points saved10 of 145 of 9Aces119Double faults40
2026-06-25	Eastbourne	Grass	J. Draper		3.07	68%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 DialloDraperPoints won39%61%Serve points won51%77%Return points won23%49%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 90 of 1Aces102Double faults02
2026-06-24	Eastbourne	Grass	T. M. Etcheverry		1.68	58%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 DialloEtcheverryPoints won56%44%Serve points won79%63%Return points won37%21%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved1 of 19 of 12Aces1410Double faults11
2026-06-22	Eastbourne	Grass	T. Atmane		1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 7-5 DialloAtmanePoints won54%46%Serve points won72%64%Return points won36%28%Games held16 of 1714 of 17Break points saved5 of 64 of 7Aces1211Double faults31

N. Basavareddy — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	R. Collignon		1.76	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 BasavareddyCollignonPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved0 of 410 of 13Aces78Double faults15
2026-10-18	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	A. Dougaz		1.19	81%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 BasavareddyDougazPoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved4 of 47 of 9Aces78Double faults03
2026-10-17	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	E. Butvilas		1.54	62%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 BasavareddyButvilasPoints won59%41%Serve points won66%48%Return points won52%34%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved6 of 66 of 11Aces35Double faults53
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	K. Coppejans		1.15	83%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 BasavareddyCoppejansPoints won46%54%Serve points won60%66%Return points won34%40%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved1 of 31 of 2Aces311Double faults50
2026-09-27	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	D. Dietrich	RET	1.47	65%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 5-1 BasavareddyDietrichPoints won55%45%Serve points won58%49%Return points won51%42%Games held10 of 147 of 14Break points saved8 of 127 of 14Aces49Double faults58
2026-09-27	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	I. Marcondes		—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 BasavareddyMarcondesPoints won56%44%Serve points won62%49%Return points won51%38%Games held8 of 116 of 11Break points saved2 of 53 of 8Aces32Double faults31
2026-09-26	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	A. Andrade		1.35	71%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 BasavareddyAndradePoints won62%38%Serve points won82%56%Return points won44%18%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved2 of 24 of 8Aces21Double faults02
2026-09-23	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	K. Hance		1.04	90%	WON
Games in each set6-2 4-6 6-3 BasavareddyHancePoints won52%48%Serve points won58%54%Return points won46%42%Games held10 of 138 of 14Break points saved7 of 107 of 13Aces16Double faults65
2026-09-21	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	M. Rottgering		1.36	67%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 BasavareddyRottgeringPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%50%Return points won50%33%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved0 of 210 of 15Aces60Double faults43
2026-09-17	Tiburon	Hard	S. Gorzny		1.20	79%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 BasavareddyGorznyPoints won43%57%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved7 of 122 of 4Aces57Double faults21

Common questions

Who is favourite, Gabriel Diallo or Nishesh Basavareddy?

Nishesh Basavareddy is favourite at 1.53, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Gabriel Diallo vs Nishesh Basavareddy?

Gabriel Diallo is 2.30 and Nishesh Basavareddy is 1.53, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

Who will win Gabriel Diallo vs Nishesh Basavareddy?

Our model makes it Nishesh Basavareddy to win at 1.53 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Damm v Wayenburg Gaston v Glinka Grenier v Kouame Martineau v Virtanen Mochizuki v Cina Torre v Samuel