ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Tommy Paul v Holger Rune

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

T. Paul to win1.49

Worth backing at 1.41 or bigger · our chance 71% · market 65/35, us 71/29

T. Paul is 7-3 over the last ten and 32-17 on hard this season. H. Rune is 4-3 over the last ten and 2-3 on hard this season.

The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 71% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.41 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

T. Paul		H. Rune
17	Ranking	195
7-3	Last 10	4-3
LWWLW	Last 5	LWWLL
+1.4	V the odds	+0.0
47-22	Season	4-3
32-17	Hard 2026	2-3
3	Last 7 days	3
3d	Days rest	4d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

T. PaulFAV1.4965%

H. Rune2.7535%

Market says65% Paul

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

T. PaulLWWLW

H. RuneLWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

T. Paul

H. Rune

47-22

32-17

Did not play

Lost R64 to A. Mannarino

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

4-3

2-3

Did not play

Lost SF to A. Zverev

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Tommy Paul

USA

Holger Rune

Denmark

USA

42–19

24–13

11–4

6–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

195

Denmark

2–1

0–1

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

T. Paul — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-30	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	C. Alcaraz	3.98	76%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 PaulAlcarazPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved3 of 45 of 5Aces35Double faults10
2026-10-29	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	L. Darderi	1.27	77%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 PaulDarderiPoints won72%28%Serve points won88%40%Return points won60%12%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 04 of 9Aces103Double faults13
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. Rublev	1.80	54%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 PaulRublevPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 27 of 11Aces43Double faults11
2026-10-24	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	T. Fritz	2.65	63%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 PaulFritzPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 39 of 9Aces115Double faults21
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Moutet	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 PaulMoutetPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved10 of 145 of 10Aces43Double faults30
2026-10-21	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	B. Bonzi	1.41	69%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 PaulBonziPoints won54%46%Serve points won78%68%Return points won32%22%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces1810Double faults31
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.91	66%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 PaulMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held9 of 139 of 12Break points saved8 of 1211 of 14Aces716Double faults18
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Bergs	1.48	66%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PaulBergsPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%69%Return points won31%33%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 4Aces34Double faults23
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	V. Vacherot	1.61	61%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 PaulVacherotPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved6 of 72 of 6Aces49Double faults01
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	D. Vallejo	1.49	65%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 PaulVallejoPoints won62%38%Serve points won64%40%Return points won60%36%Games held6 of 82 of 8Break points saved3 of 54 of 10Aces51Double faults12

H. Rune — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	V. Vacherot	1.68	58%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 RuneVacherotPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held11 of 1313 of 14Break points saved2 of 49 of 10Aces620Double faults25
2026-10-28	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	H. Hurkacz	2.52	61%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 7-6 RuneHurkaczPoints won50%50%Serve points won72%72%Return points won28%28%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 14 of 5Aces518Double faults42
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	Q. Halys	1.94	50%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-7 7-6 RuneHalysPoints won48%52%Serve points won68%73%Return points won27%32%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved5 of 52 of 3Aces1332Double faults35
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	D. Altmaier	1.47	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 4-6 RuneAltmaierPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%69%Return points won31%26%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved0 of 13 of 5Aces58Double faults33
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.58	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 RuneJacquetPoints won38%62%Serve points won52%75%Return points won25%48%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved2 of 60 of 0Aces33Double faults03
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	G. Dimitrov	2.05	55%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 7-6 RuneDimitrovPoints won51%49%Serve points won70%64%Return points won36%30%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved1 of 49 of 12Aces511Double faults23
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	I. Radulov	1.20	79%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 RuneRadulovPoints won57%43%Serve points won74%53%Return points won47%26%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 16 of 10Aces51Double faults33

Common questions

Who is favourite, Tommy Paul or Holger Rune?

Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.49, which is a 65% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune?

Tommy Paul is 1.49 and Holger Rune is 2.75, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

Who will win Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune?

Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 1.49 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Buse v Bergs Fokina v Kouame Djokovic v Vacherot Halys v Fery Humbert v Zandschulp Aguilar v Blockx