ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Novak Djokovic v Valentin Vacherot

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

V. Vacherot to win3.28

Worth backing at 2.80 or bigger · our chance 36% · market 71/29, us 64/36

V. Vacherot is 7-3 over the last ten and 18-15 on hard this season. N. Djokovic is 5-5 over the last ten and 12-6 on hard this season. V. Vacherot has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is N. Djokovic 0-1.

The pick is V. Vacherot to win. We make it a 36% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.80 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

N. Djokovic		V. Vacherot
11	Ranking	32
5-5	Last 10	7-3
LWLWW	Last 5	WWWWL
-1.2	V the odds	+2.7
20-9	Season	28-18
12-6	Hard 2026	18-15
2	Last 7 days	4
4d	Days rest	3d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

N. DjokovicFAV1.3571%

V. Vacherot3.2829%

Market says71% Djokovic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

N. DjokovicLWLWW

V. VacherotWWWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

N. Djokovic0

V. Vacherot1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-10-11	Shanghai	N. DjokovicvV. Vacherot	3-6 4-6

This season & this event

N. Djokovic

V. Vacherot

20-9

12-6

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

28-18

18-15

Lost QF to F. Auger-Aliassime

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

Serbia

17–7

10–4

2–2

5–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Monaco

24–17

14–13

6–4

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

N. Djokovic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	J-L. Struff		1.29	76%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-7 DjokovicStruffPoints won50%50%Serve points won77%74%Return points won26%23%Games held17 of 1818 of 18Break points saved2 of 36 of 6Aces2127Double faults32
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	U. Humbert		1.41	69%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-4 DjokovicHumbertPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%63%Return points won37%33%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved5 of 66 of 8Aces912Double faults33
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz		1.53	63%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 DjokovicHurkaczPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%73%Return points won27%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 52 of 2Aces213Double faults12
2026-10-06	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	RET	1.59	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 0-1 DjokovicMinaurPoints won53%47%Serve points won82%68%Return points won32%18%Games held6 of 67 of 7Break points saved1 of 12 of 2Aces04Double faults02
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	A. Zverev		3.36	71%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-4 DjokovicZverevPoints won53%47%Serve points won73%68%Return points won32%27%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved3 of 43 of 5Aces419Double faults30
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	Y. Bu		1.30	75%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-2 DjokovicBuPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%62%Return points won38%29%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved6 of 84 of 7Aces1510Double faults01
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	N. Borges		1.40	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 DjokovicBorgesPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%65%Return points won35%25%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 21 of 2Aces83Double faults22
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	M. Navone		1.18	83%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-5 6-4 2-6 1-6 DjokovicNavonePoints won47%53%Serve points won61%67%Return points won33%39%Games held18 of 2421 of 25Break points saved11 of 178 of 12Aces109Double faults108
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	T. A. Tirante		1.28	76%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 DjokovicTirantePoints won48%52%Serve points won62%70%Return points won30%38%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved13 of 154 of 6Aces513Double faults75
2026-07-10	Wimbledon	Grass	J. Sinner		5.15	81%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 4-6 DjokovicSinnerPoints won44%56%Serve points won61%78%Return points won22%39%Games held12 of 1515 of 15Break points saved10 of 131 of 1Aces816Double faults30

V. Vacherot — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-30	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	T. Fritz	3.70	74%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 VacherotFritzPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%69%Return points won31%29%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces1011Double faults21
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	R. Jodar	3.44	72%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 7-6 VacherotJodarPoints won48%52%Serve points won65%70%Return points won30%35%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved8 of 112 of 3Aces1310Double faults63
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	H. Rune	2.30	58%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 VacherotRunePoints won51%49%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held13 of 1411 of 13Break points saved9 of 102 of 4Aces206Double faults52
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	M. Navone	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 VacherotNavonePoints won53%47%Serve points won70%62%Return points won38%30%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved6 of 711 of 13Aces121Double faults43
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.77	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 VacherotAsschePoints won50%50%Serve points won64%65%Return points won35%36%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces108Double faults25
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Paul	2.47	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotPaulPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved2 of 66 of 7Aces94Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Baez	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 VacherotBaezPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 31 of 3Aces155Double faults10
2026-10-05	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.59	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotLeheckaPoints won39%61%Serve points won60%90%Return points won10%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces410Double faults30
2026-10-04	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	4.32	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-4 VacherotFilsPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held13 of 1612 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 9Aces146Double faults48
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 VacherotTsitsipasPoints won49%51%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 83 of 5Aces79Double faults10

Common questions

Who is favourite, Novak Djokovic or Valentin Vacherot?

Novak Djokovic is favourite at 1.35, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot?

Novak Djokovic is 1.35 and Valentin Vacherot is 3.28, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Novak Djokovic and Valentin Vacherot?

They have met 1 time and Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0.

Who will win Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot?

Our model makes it Valentin Vacherot to win at 3.28 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

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