ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alexander Blockx

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

D. Merida Aguilar to win2.41

Worth backing at 2.17 or bigger · our chance 46% · market 40/60, us 46/54

D. Merida Aguilar is 5-5 over the last ten and 24-12 on hard this season. A. Blockx is 5-5 over the last ten and 25-13 on hard this season.

The pick is D. Merida Aguilar to win. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.17 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

D. Merida Aguilar		A. Blockx
39	Ranking	28
5-5	Last 10	5-5
LLWLW	Last 5	LLLWW
+0.6	V the odds	-0.6
44-22	Season	37-19
24-12	Hard 2026	25-13
1	Last 7 days	0
6d	Days rest	23d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	23d out
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

D. Merida Aguilar2.4140%

A. BlockxFAV1.6260%

Market says60% Blockx

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

D. Merida AguilarLLWLW

A. BlockxLLLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

D. Merida Aguilar

A. Blockx

44-22

24-12

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

37-19

25-13

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

Alexander Blockx

Belgium

Spain

43–20

20–9

22–9

1–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Belgium

37–18

20–11

16–6

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

D. Merida Aguilar — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	D. Medvedev	4.42	78%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 AguilarMedvedevPoints won42%58%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 54 of 6Aces05Double faults12
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	1.96	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 AguilarZandschulpPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%58%Return points won42%41%Games held9 of 139 of 13Break points saved0 of 43 of 7Aces60Double faults42
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	A. Tabilo	2.12	55%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-3 AguilarTabiloPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 65 of 8Aces93Double faults10
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	A. Michelsen	2.68	64%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 3-6 AguilarMichelsenPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held12 of 1614 of 15Break points saved3 of 74 of 5Aces86Double faults71
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	A. Rublev	2.36	59%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4 AguilarRublevPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held19 of 2015 of 20Break points saved5 of 66 of 11Aces913Double faults98
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	M. Fucsovics	1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-2 AguilarFucsovicsPoints won57%43%Serve points won72%53%Return points won47%28%Games held13 of 138 of 13Break points saved0 of 08 of 13Aces30Double faults211
2026-08-18	Cincinnati	Hard	T. Fritz	4.65	79%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 AguilarFritzPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces28Double faults00
2026-08-16	Cincinnati	Hard	Z. Bergs	1.86	52%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 AguilarBergsPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 30 of 3Aces22Double faults96
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Cilic	1.68	58%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-1 AguilarCilicPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held10 of 117 of 12Break points saved4 of 52 of 7Aces95Double faults22
2026-08-12	Montreal	Hard	L. Tien	2.78	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 AguilarTienPoints won40%60%Serve points won49%69%Return points won31%51%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved4 of 82 of 3Aces00Double faults10

A. Blockx — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	Q. Halys		1.86	52%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 BlockxHalysPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%76%Return points won24%25%Games held15 of 1615 of 16Break points saved0 of 12 of 3Aces1918Double faults44
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	V. Vacherot		1.75	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 BlockxVacherotPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%71%Return points won29%38%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved6 of 87 of 9Aces27Double faults25
2026-09-09	US Open	Hard	K. Khachanov	RET	2.47	60%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 5-7 2-3 BlockxKhachanovPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held9 of 1312 of 12Break points saved2 of 62 of 2Aces86Double faults42
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	F. Cerundolo		1.65	59%	WON
Games in each set6-3 4-6 7-5 7-5 BlockxCerundoloPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%61%Return points won39%38%Games held18 of 2116 of 22Break points saved14 of 176 of 12Aces105Double faults76
2026-09-05	US Open	Hard	F. Cobolli		2.02	52%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-0 6-3 BlockxCobolliPoints won60%40%Serve points won76%52%Return points won48%24%Games held16 of 1810 of 18Break points saved5 of 713 of 21Aces175Double faults45
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Trungelliti		1.20	81%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1 BlockxTrungellitiPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%55%Return points won45%28%Games held16 of 1711 of 16Break points saved3 of 47 of 12Aces175Double faults712
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	T. Barrios Vera		1.18	82%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 6-2 BlockxVeraPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%63%Return points won37%25%Games held14 of 149 of 13Break points saved5 of 54 of 8Aces103Double faults33
2026-08-17	Cincinnati	Hard	F. Cobolli		1.80	53%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-4 5-7 BlockxCobolliPoints won48%52%Serve points won62%65%Return points won35%38%Games held13 of 1714 of 17Break points saved5 of 95 of 8Aces103Double faults71
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Navone		1.71	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BlockxNavonePoints won54%46%Serve points won72%64%Return points won36%28%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 24 of 6Aces110Double faults22
2026-08-07	Montreal	Hard	J. Lehecka		2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 BlockxLeheckaPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%75%Return points won25%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved5 of 70 of 0Aces102Double faults72

Common questions

Who is favourite, Daniel Merida Aguilar or Alexander Blockx?

Alexander Blockx is favourite at 1.62, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander Blockx?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is 2.41 and Alexander Blockx is 1.62, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

Who will win Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander Blockx?

Our model makes it Daniel Merida Aguilar to win at 2.41 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Buse v Bergs Fokina v Kouame Djokovic v Vacherot Halys v Fery Humbert v Zandschulp Michelsen v Lehecka