ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Learner Tien

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

S. Tsitsipas to win2.15

Worth backing at 2.04 or bigger · our chance 49% · market 45/55, us 49/51

S. Tsitsipas is 7-3 over the last ten and 28-17 on hard this season. L. Tien is 4-6 over the last ten and 22-16 on hard this season. The head to head is S. Tsitsipas 0-1.

The pick is S. Tsitsipas to win. We make it a 49% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.04 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Tsitsipas		L. Tien
39	Ranking	16
7-3	Last 10	4-6
LWWWL	Last 5	LWLWL
+0.2	V the odds	-1.3
43-24	Season	35-23
28-17	Hard 2026	22-16
0	Last 7 days	2
9d	Days rest	5d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. Tsitsipas2.1545%

L. TienFAV1.7655%

Market says55% Tien

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. TsitsipasLWWWL

L. TienLWLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

S. Tsitsipas0

L. Tien1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-05-20	Geneva	S. TsitsipasvL. Tien	6-7 6-7

This season & this event

S. Tsitsipas

L. Tien

43-24

28-17

Did not play

Lost QF to A. Zverev

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-23

22-16

Lost R32 to A. Rublev

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

Learner Tien

USA

Greece

37–22

22–14

10–6

1–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

USA

31–19

19–12

9–4

2–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Tsitsipas — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	N. Basilashvili	1.46	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 7-6 3-6 TsitsipasBasilashviliPoints won46%54%Serve points won67%75%Return points won25%33%Games held13 of 1516 of 16Break points saved6 of 83 of 3Aces117Double faults04
2026-10-23	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	J. Duckworth	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 TsitsipasDuckworthPoints won59%41%Serve points won87%58%Return points won42%13%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 8Aces155Double faults01
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kukushkin	1.05	92%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 TsitsipasKukushkinPoints won68%32%Serve points won82%44%Return points won56%18%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 04 of 8Aces80Double faults00
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Kovacevic	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 TsitsipasKovacevicPoints won52%48%Serve points won74%68%Return points won32%26%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 13 of 4Aces713Double faults23
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.99	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 TsitsipasMedvedevPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%73%Return points won27%37%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 70 of 0Aces48Double faults11
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Fritz	2.40	59%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 6-3 TsitsipasFritzPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%71%Return points won29%33%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved8 of 96 of 8Aces1523Double faults24
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	L. Darderi	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 TsitsipasDarderiPoints won56%44%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved3 of 33 of 5Aces164Double faults20
2026-10-08	Shanghai	Hard	K. Coppejans	1.08	90%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 TsitsipasCoppejansPoints won58%42%Serve points won81%66%Return points won34%19%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 01 of 3Aces52Double faults12
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	V. Vacherot	1.65	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 TsitsipasVacherotPoints won51%49%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved3 of 56 of 8Aces97Double faults01
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	T. M. Etcheverry	1.34	72%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-4 TsitsipasEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won81%68%Return points won32%19%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 6Aces95Double faults01

L. Tien — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-28	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. De Minaur	2.02	52%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 TienMinaurPoints won40%60%Serve points won50%71%Return points won29%50%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved3 of 72 of 3Aces12Double faults20
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.43	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 TienAsschePoints won59%41%Serve points won69%50%Return points won50%31%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved5 of 52 of 6Aces47Double faults22
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	C. Ruud	1.66	59%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 TienRuudPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%72%Return points won28%36%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 2Aces713Double faults53
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Svajda	1.37	71%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-5 TienSvajdaPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%66%Return points won34%25%Games held12 of 1210 of 12Break points saved0 of 01 of 3Aces57Double faults24
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	H. Hurkacz	1.60	61%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 4-6 TienHurkaczPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%70%Return points won30%34%Games held12 of 1514 of 16Break points saved4 of 73 of 5Aces512Double faults12
2026-09-27	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	A. Zverev	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 TienZverevPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%73%Return points won27%36%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 64 of 4Aces05Double faults24
2026-09-26	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cobolli	1.47	65%	WON
Games in each set6-3 2-6 10-7 TienCobolliPoints won50%50%Serve points won55%54%Return points won46%45%Games held5 of 86 of 9Break points saved4 of 73 of 6Aces10Double faults45
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	J. Lehecka	1.91	50%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 TienLeheckaPoints won46%54%Serve points won57%64%Return points won36%43%Games held6 of 109 of 11Break points saved5 of 96 of 8Aces15Double faults33
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	J. Mensik	2.22	58%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 TienMensikPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%56%Return points won44%28%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved3 of 43 of 7Aces14Double faults24
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	K. Khachanov	1.57	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-4 7-6 1-6 4-6 TienKhachanovPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%63%Return points won37%39%Games held17 of 2620 of 25Break points saved3 of 129 of 14Aces89Double faults87

Common questions

Who is favourite, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Learner Tien?

Learner Tien is favourite at 1.76, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is 2.15 and Learner Tien is 1.76, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Learner Tien?

They have met 1 time and Learner Tien leads 1-0.

Who will win Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien?

Our model makes it Stefanos Tsitsipas to win at 2.15 (Solid confidence).

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