ChallengerHardBrest · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 10:00

Michele Ribecai v Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

M. Ribecai to win3.20

Worth backing at 3.00 or bigger · our chance 33% · market 29/71, us 33/67

M. Ribecai is 6-4 over the last ten and 14-13 on hard this season. N. Budkov Kjaer is 6-4 over the last ten and 23-16 on hard this season. M. Ribecai has played 4 matches in seven days. N. Budkov Kjaer took a medical timeout on 2026-10-19. The head to head is M. Ribecai 0-1.

The pick is M. Ribecai to win. We make it a 33% chance, so it is only worth backing at 3.00 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Ribecai		N. Budkov Kjaer
288	Ranking	152
6-4	Last 10	6-4
LWWWW	Last 5	LWLWW
+0.7	V the odds	-0.6
36-32	Season	33-32
14-13	Hard 2026	23-16
4	Last 7 days	0
2d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Ribecai3.2029%

N. Budkov KjaerFAV1.2971%

Market says71% Kjaer

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. RibecaiLWWWW

N. Budkov KjaerLWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Ribecai0

N. Budkov Kjaer1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2024-10-01	ITF M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 9 Men	N. Budkov KjaervM. Ribecai	0-6 6-3 6-4

This season & this event

M. Ribecai

N. Budkov Kjaer

36-32

14-13

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

33-32

23-16

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

288

Italy

32–31

14–13

18–18

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

152

Norway

33–31

21–16

9–9

2–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Ribecai — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-25	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Romano		1.63	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-4 2-6 RibecaiRomanoPoints won47%53%Serve points won56%64%Return points won36%44%Games held8 of 1410 of 13Break points saved11 of 173 of 6Aces06Double faults02
2026-10-24	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	O. Roca Batalla		—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 RibecaiBatallaPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held9 of 117 of 11Break points saved1 of 34 of 8Aces13Double faults12
2026-10-23	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Misolic		2.19	56%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 RibecaiMisolicPoints won63%37%Serve points won61%35%Return points won65%39%Games held6 of 72 of 8Break points saved6 of 71 of 7Aces01Double faults20
2026-10-21	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Houkes		2.31	58%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-0 RibecaiHoukesPoints won55%45%Serve points won67%58%Return points won42%33%Games held11 of 128 of 12Break points saved2 of 32 of 6Aces14Double faults02
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	J. Vasami	RET	1.75	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-0 4-2 RibecaiVasamiPoints won58%42%Serve points won62%47%Return points won53%38%Games held8 of 115 of 11Break points saved5 of 82 of 8Aces13Double faults04
2026-10-12	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	R. M. Papoe		—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 RibecaiPapoePoints won46%54%Serve points won55%67%Return points won33%45%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved8 of 123 of 5Aces40Double faults00
2026-10-09	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	J. Forejtek		2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-1 6-7 RibecaiForejtekPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held10 of 1310 of 13Break points saved7 of 104 of 7Aces23Double faults11
2026-10-07	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	Z. Kolar		2.14	55%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 RibecaiKolarPoints won64%36%Serve points won69%40%Return points won60%31%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved4 of 46 of 11Aces01Double faults04
2026-10-05	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	B. Sanchez Martinez		1.60	60%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 6-0 RibecaiMartinezPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%49%Return points won51%41%Games held10 of 157 of 15Break points saved4 of 98 of 16Aces32Double faults12
2026-09-20	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Domenc		1.20	79%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 RibecaiDomencPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%71%Return points won29%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved0 of 20 of 0Aces06Double faults20

N. Budkov Kjaer — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Tabur	1.75	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 1-6 KjaerTaburPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%69%Return points won31%45%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved3 of 73 of 4Aces18Double faults11
2026-10-18	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	U. Blanchet	1.55	62%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-3 KjaerBlanchetPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held10 of 128 of 13Break points saved8 of 106 of 11Aces45Double faults16
2026-10-17	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	M. Martineau	1.39	70%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 KjaerMartineauPoints won44%56%Serve points won65%82%Return points won18%35%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved2 of 30 of 0Aces214Double faults12
2026-10-16	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	H. Gaston	2.18	55%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-6 KjaerGastonPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%59%Return points won41%32%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved2 of 41 of 5Aces55Double faults10
2026-10-15	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	M. Kouame	1.78	54%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 KjaerKouamePoints won55%45%Serve points won58%48%Return points won52%42%Games held6 of 93 of 9Break points saved3 of 67 of 13Aces25Double faults23
2026-10-13	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	J. Paul	1.22	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 KjaerPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won64%59%Return points won41%36%Games held9 of 117 of 11Break points saved6 of 84 of 8Aces82Double faults30
2026-10-01	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	F. Balshaw	1.57	61%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-4 6-7 KjaerBalshawPoints won48%52%Serve points won65%69%Return points won31%35%Games held15 of 1715 of 17Break points saved7 of 95 of 7Aces114Double faults04
2026-09-29	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	Y. Ghazouani Durand	1.23	78%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 KjaerDurandPoints won55%45%Serve points won62%53%Return points won47%38%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved6 of 71 of 6Aces51Double faults20
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	B. Harris	1.56	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 5-7 KjaerHarrisPoints won48%52%Serve points won60%61%Return points won39%40%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved4 of 89 of 12Aces711Double faults55
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	J. Cui	1.04	92%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-4 KjaerCuiPoints won55%45%Serve points won74%59%Return points won41%26%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved3 of 54 of 7Aces102Double faults34

Common questions

Who is favourite, Michele Ribecai or Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is favourite at 1.29, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Michele Ribecai vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?

Michele Ribecai is 3.20 and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is 1.29, the prices we recorded for the Brest match.

What is the head-to-head between Michele Ribecai and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?

They have met 1 time and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leads 1-0.

Who will win Michele Ribecai vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?

Our model makes it Michele Ribecai to win at 3.20 (Solid confidence).

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