Mariano Navone v Pablo Carreno-Busta
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONP. Carreno-Busta is 4-6 over the last ten and 12-12 on hard this season. M. Navone is 5-5 over the last ten and 13-13 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Navone 1-0.
The pick is P. Carreno-Busta to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 73% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.38 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Navone | P. Carreno-Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | Ranking | 66 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LLWWL | Last 5 | LWWLL |
| -0.2 | V the odds | +0.2 |
| 28-23 | Season | 30-20 |
| 13-13 | Hard 2026 | 12-12 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 7d | Days rest | 6d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | M. NavonevP. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 |
| 2024-05-28 | ATP French Open | M. NavonevP. Carreno-Busta | 3 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Navone — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | 1.78 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | 4.56 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 0 | 2.18 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | 2.57 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | N. Djokovic | 3 - 2 | 5.59 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | 1.64 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Blockx | 2 - 0 | 2.24 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | 2.19 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | 3.92 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | V. Vacherot | 1 - 2 | 2.35 | 59% | WON |
P. Carreno-Busta — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | 2.12 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 4.08 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.59 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | 4.59 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | D. Vallejo | 0 - 1 RET | 1.74 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 2.85 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Machac | 0 - 2 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | V. Royer | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-07-23 | Estoril | Clay | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mariano Navone or Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Mariano Navone is favourite at 1.78, which is a 54% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Mariano Navone is 1.78 and Pablo Carreno-Busta is 2.12, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno-Busta?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Our model makes it Pablo Carreno-Busta to win a set (Lean confidence).