Marcos Giron v Sebastian Baez
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTM. Giron is 3-7 over the last ten and 16-17 on hard this season. S. Baez is 4-6 over the last ten and 23-13 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Giron 0-3.
The pick is M. Giron to win. We make it a 48% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.08 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Giron | S. Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Ranking | 51 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LLLLL | Last 5 | LLLWL |
| - | V the odds | -0.8 |
| 23-26 | Season | 34-27 |
| 16-17 | Hard 2026 | 23-13 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 9d | Days rest | 7d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-3 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | M. GironvS. Baez | 1 - 2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Auckland | S. BaezvM. Giron | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-08-13 | ATP Cincinnati | M. GironvS. Baez | 1 - 2 |
| 2023-04-29 | ATP Madrid | S. BaezvM. Giron | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Giron — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Baez | 1 - 2 | 2.16 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | I. Buse | 2 - 3 | 2.46 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | D. Suresh | 2 - 0 | 1.40 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | H. Rocha | 0 - 2 | 1.41 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | 2.58 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-01 | Montreal | Hard | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | 1.50 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-07-28 | Washington | Hard | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | 1.16 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-07-26 | Washington | Hard | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | 1.13 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-07-25 | Washington | Hard | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 91% | WON |
S. Baez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Giron | 1 - 2 | 1.75 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | J. Shang | 2 - 1 | 2.32 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Brooksby | 0 - 2 | 2.36 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | 6.53 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | H. Grenier | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1 - 0 RET | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Cancun 2 | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cancun 2 | Hard | L. Harris | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cancun 2 | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | 1.62 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Marcos Giron or Sebastian Baez?
Sebastian Baez is favourite at 1.75, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez?
Marcos Giron is 2.16 and Sebastian Baez is 1.75, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez?
They have met 4 times and Sebastian Baez leads 4-0.
Who will win Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model makes it Marcos Giron to win at 2.16 (Lean confidence).