ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Luca van Assche v Mariano Navone

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

M. Navone to win2.49

Worth backing at 2.38 or bigger · our chance 42% · market 61/39, us 58/42

M. Navone is 3-7 over the last ten and 14-16 on hard this season. L. van Assche is 4-6 over the last ten and 27-16 on hard this season. L. van Assche took a medical timeout on 2026-10-23.

The pick is M. Navone to win. We make it a 42% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.38 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

L. van Assche		M. Navone
45	Ranking	47
4-6	Last 10	3-7
LLWWL	Last 5	LLWLL
-0.3	V the odds	-1.2
45-25	Season	29-26
27-16	Hard 2026	14-16
1	Last 7 days	1
6d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
MTO	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

L. van AsscheFAV1.5861%

M. Navone2.4939%

Market says61% Assche

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

L. van AsscheLLWWL

M. NavoneLLWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

L. van Assche

M. Navone

45-25

27-16

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

29-26

14-16

Did not play

Lost R64 to A. De Minaur

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Luca van Assche

France

Mariano Navone

Argentina

France

43–23

25–12

18–10

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

28–24

11–11

17–11

0–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

L. van Assche — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	L. Tien	3.03	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 AsscheTienPoints won41%59%Serve points won50%69%Return points won31%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved2 of 65 of 5Aces74Double faults22
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. Musetti	2.91	67%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 4-6 AsscheMusettiPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%69%Return points won31%34%Games held15 of 1716 of 17Break points saved6 of 83 of 4Aces76Double faults21
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	V. Vacherot	2.16	55%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 AsscheVacherotPoints won50%50%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved1 of 44 of 7Aces810Double faults52
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	C. Tabur	1.59	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 AsscheTaburPoints won53%47%Serve points won64%59%Return points won41%36%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 35 of 7Aces104Double faults20
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	Y. Bu	2.34	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 AsscheBuPoints won43%57%Serve points won64%84%Return points won16%36%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 20 of 0Aces112Double faults30
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	5.30	82%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 AsscheFilsPoints won42%58%Serve points won53%68%Return points won32%47%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved7 of 103 of 3Aces412Double faults13
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	D. Shapovalov	2.36	59%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 4-6 6-7 AsscheShapovalovPoints won44%56%Serve points won52%63%Return points won37%48%Games held7 of 1411 of 14Break points saved2 of 98 of 11Aces411Double faults49
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	C. Norrie	2.87	66%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-2 6-3 AsscheNorriePoints won58%42%Serve points won69%53%Return points won47%31%Games held16 of 1910 of 18Break points saved1 of 43 of 11Aces86Double faults53
2026-08-25	Winston-Salem	Hard	A. Kovacevic	1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 AsscheKovacevicPoints won42%58%Serve points won57%72%Return points won28%43%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved6 of 93 of 4Aces48Double faults64
2026-08-23	Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	1.47	66%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 AsscheSakellaridisPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%51%Return points won49%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved3 of 47 of 11Aces10Double faults31

M. Navone — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	V. Vacherot	2.68	64%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 NavoneVacherotPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%70%Return points won30%38%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved11 of 136 of 7Aces112Double faults34
2026-10-21	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	T. Griekspoor	2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 NavoneGriekspoorPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved0 of 34 of 6Aces614Double faults22
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	J. M. Cerundolo	1.60	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 NavoneCerundoloPoints won53%47%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 32 of 5Aces32Double faults12
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	P. Carreno-Busta	1.76	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 5-7 3-6 NavoneCarreno-BustaPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held12 of 1514 of 16Break points saved7 of 1012 of 14Aces66Double faults21
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	4.25	77%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 NavoneMinaurPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%68%Return points won32%45%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved4 of 79 of 10Aces16Double faults02
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	T. M. Etcheverry	2.18	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 3-6 NavoneEtcheverryPoints won45%55%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved4 of 80 of 1Aces48Double faults11
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Berrettini	2.57	62%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6 NavoneBerrettiniPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held18 of 2017 of 20Break points saved7 of 94 of 7Aces515Double faults46
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	N. Djokovic	5.59	83%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1 NavoneDjokovicPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held21 of 2518 of 24Break points saved8 of 1211 of 17Aces910Double faults810
2026-08-25	Winston-Salem	Hard	J. Duckworth	1.64	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 NavoneDuckworthPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held7 of 109 of 11Break points saved3 of 66 of 8Aces14Double faults46
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	A. Blockx	2.24	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 NavoneBlockxPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%72%Return points won28%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved4 of 62 of 2Aces011Double faults22

Common questions

Who is favourite, Luca van Assche or Mariano Navone?

Luca van Assche is favourite at 1.58, which is a 61% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Luca van Assche vs Mariano Navone?

Luca van Assche is 1.58 and Mariano Navone is 2.49, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

Who will win Luca van Assche vs Mariano Navone?

Our model makes it Mariano Navone to win at 2.49 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Buse v Bergs Fokina v Kouame Djokovic v Vacherot Halys v Fery Humbert v Zandschulp Aguilar v Blockx