Lorenzo Musetti v Hubert Hurkacz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanL. Musetti is 7-3 over the last ten and 22-10 on hard this season. H. Hurkacz is 7-3 over the last ten and 25-15 on hard this season. H. Hurkacz retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is L. Musetti 2-2.
The pick is L. Musetti to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 75% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.33 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Musetti | H. Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Ranking | 34 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | LWLWW |
| +0.5 | V the odds | +1.5 |
| 26-13 | Season | 37-24 |
| 22-10 | Hard 2026 | 25-15 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 4d | Days rest | 5d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | retired |
| Head to head 2-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Madrid | H. HurkaczvL. Musetti | 4-6 6-7 |
| 2023-07-07 | ATP Wimbledon | L. MusettivH. Hurkacz | 6-7 4-6 4-6 |
| 2022-02-09 | Rotterdam | H. HurkaczvL. Musetti | 3-6 7-5 3-6 |
| 2021-06-29 | Wimbledon | H. HurkaczvL. Musetti | 6-4 7-6 6-1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Musetti — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fery | 1.34 | 73% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 7-5 4-6 MusettiFeryPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held13 of 1614 of 16Break points saved5 of 87 of 9Aces40Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Tiafoe | 2.21 | 56% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-5 MusettiTiafoePoints won55%45%Serve points won77%63%Return points won37%23%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved0 of 05 of 6Aces54Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.84 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MusettiFritzPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces46Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cobolli | 2.16 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-2 7-5 MusettiCobolliPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved8 of 90 of 3Aces54Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | L. van Assche | 1.46 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-4 MusettiAsschePoints won51%49%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved3 of 46 of 8Aces67Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | M. Kouame | 1.27 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MusettiKouamePoints won55%45%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces26Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | M. Arnaldi | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-4 MusettiArnaldiPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 5Aces50Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Zhou | 1.23 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-7 MusettiZhouPoints won52%48%Serve points won76%69%Return points won31%24%Games held17 of 1715 of 16Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces514Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Sweeny | 1.04 | 93% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 2-6 2-6 MusettiSweenyPoints won44%56%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held8 of 1613 of 16Break points saved9 of 177 of 10Aces65Double faults72 | |||||||
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | A. Fery | 1.29 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 7-5 MusettiFeryPoints won58%42%Serve points won73%55%Return points won45%27%Games held13 of 159 of 15Break points saved4 of 63 of 9Aces70Double faults45 | |||||||
H. Hurkacz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | H. Rune | 1.60 | 61% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-7 HurkaczRunePoints won50%50%Serve points won72%72%Return points won28%28%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 50 of 1Aces185Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | Z. Bergs | 1.57 | 62% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 HurkaczBergsPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%66%Return points won34%26%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved6 of 74 of 6Aces1314Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1.91 | 51% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-1 3-6 6-7 HurkaczFokinaPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%61%Return points won39%29%Games held12 of 1411 of 14Break points saved0 of 29 of 12Aces213Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Zhou | 1.14 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-3 HurkaczZhouPoints won54%46%Serve points won74%64%Return points won36%26%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved3 of 46 of 9Aces183Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | N. Djokovic | 2.65 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 HurkaczDjokovicPoints won56%44%Serve points won73%62%Return points won38%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces132Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 7-6 HurkaczDuckworthPoints won55%45%Serve points won78%73%Return points won27%22%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces196Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | RET | 2.20 | 56% | LOST |
Games in each set4-6 2-3 HurkaczMinaurPoints won42%58%Serve points won54%73%Return points won27%46%Games held5 of 86 of 7Break points saved6 of 92 of 3Aces83Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | K. Khachanov | 2.34 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 HurkaczKhachanovPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%66%Return points won34%25%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved1 of 10 of 2Aces87Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | A. Gea | 1.69 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-2 HurkaczGeaPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%69%Return points won31%29%Games held16 of 1614 of 16Break points saved5 of 50 of 2Aces138Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | L. Tien | 2.48 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-4 HurkaczTienPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%66%Return points won34%30%Games held14 of 1612 of 15Break points saved3 of 54 of 7Aces125Double faults21 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Lorenzo Musetti or Hubert Hurkacz?
Hubert Hurkacz is favourite at 1.86, which is a 52% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Lorenzo Musetti is 2.01 and Hubert Hurkacz is 1.86, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Lorenzo Musetti and Hubert Hurkacz?
They have met 4 times and they are level at 2-2.
Who will win Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model makes it Lorenzo Musetti to win a set (Lean confidence).