Kei Nishikori v Frances Tiafoe
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONF. Tiafoe is 8-2 over the last ten and 26-12 on hard this season. K. Nishikori is 5-5 over the last ten and 7-7 on hard this season.
The pick is F. Tiafoe to win 2-0. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.75 or bigger. At 1.57 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| K. Nishikori | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Ranking | 12 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| LWWLW | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| +0.1 | V the odds | +2.9 |
| 9-9 | Season | 42-18 |
| 7-7 | Hard 2026 | 26-12 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 34d | Days rest | 19d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| 34d out | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | K. NishikorivF. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
K. Nishikori — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | 5.43 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | 2.42 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | M. Antonius | 2 - 0 | 1.62 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | S. Ofner | 1 - 2 | 1.89 | 51% | WON |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | 1.75 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Comesana | 2 - 1 | 1.97 | 51% | WON |
| 2026-08-01 | Montreal | Hard | M. Zheng | 2 - 0 | 2.98 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-07-30 | Washington | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 4.94 | 80% | LOST |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | J. Shang | 2 - 1 | 2.29 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-04-22 | Savannah | Clay | J. Kennedy | 2 - 1 | 1.37 | 71% | LOST |
F. Tiafoe — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Nishikori | 0 - 2 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 1 - 3 | 3.44 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 3 - 2 | 1.67 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | 2.51 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | V. Vacherot | 0 - 3 | 1.53 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 3 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 3 | 1.24 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | 2.02 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 1 | 2.80 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-22 | Cincinnati | Hard | L. Musetti | 0 - 2 | 2.05 | 52% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Kei Nishikori or Frances Tiafoe?
Frances Tiafoe is favourite at 1.18, which is a 82% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe?
Kei Nishikori is 5.43 and Frances Tiafoe is 1.18, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Kei Nishikori and Frances Tiafoe?
They have met 1 time and Frances Tiafoe leads 1-0.
Who will win Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model makes it Frances Tiafoe to win 2-0 at 1.57 (Lean confidence).