Carlos Alcaraz v Alex Michelsen
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONA. Michelsen is 7-3 over the last ten and 27-12 on hard this season. C. Alcaraz is 8-2 over the last ten and 21-3 on hard this season.
The pick is A. Michelsen to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 50% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.00 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Alcaraz | A. Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ranking | 46 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| -0.2 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 27-4 | Season | 35-20 |
| 21-3 | Hard 2026 | 27-12 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 4d | Days rest | 22d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Defending title | Fitness | 22d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | C. AlcarazvA. Michelsen | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | 1.28 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | 1.22 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | 1.08 | 89% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R. Safiullin | 0 - 3 | 1.21 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | O. Virtanen | 2 - 0 | 1.03 | 96% | WON |
| 2026-04-12 | Monte Carlo | Clay | J. Sinner | 0 - 2 | 2.08 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-04-11 | Monte Carlo | Clay | V. Vacherot | 2 - 0 | 1.07 | 92% | WON |
| 2026-04-10 | Monte Carlo | Clay | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
A. Michelsen — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | 5.79 | 83% | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 | 2.36 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 0 | 1.37 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 3 - 0 | 1.53 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 0 - 3 | 2.99 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | F. Cina | 3 - 0 | 1.22 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | 2.38 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. De Jong | 2 - 0 | 1.20 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 1 | 1.36 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 58% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Carlos Alcaraz or Alex Michelsen?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.17, which is a 83% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen?
Carlos Alcaraz is 1.17 and Alex Michelsen is 5.79, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen?
They have met 1 time and Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0.
Who will win Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model makes it Alex Michelsen to win a set (Lean confidence).