Matteo Arnaldi v Rei Sakamoto
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongLOSTR. Sakamoto is 6-4 over the last ten and 27-16 on hard this season. M. Arnaldi is 3-7 over the last ten and 2-8 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Arnaldi 1-0.
The pick is R. Sakamoto to win. We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.59 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Arnaldi | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Ranking | 200 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| LLLWL | Last 5 | WLLWW |
| -2.3 | V the odds | -0.1 |
| 18-16 | Season | 35-21 |
| 2-8 | Hard 2026 | 27-16 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 30d | Days rest | 11d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| 30d out | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | M. ArnaldivR. Sakamoto | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Shanghai | M. ArnaldivR. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Arnaldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | 2.24 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | 1.61 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | 2.18 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | 2.84 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | 2.30 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 RET | 2.44 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | 2.20 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-06-23 | Eastbourne | Grass | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | 1.29 | 75% | LOST |
R. Sakamoto — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | 1.72 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | A. Shepp | 0 - 2 | 1.13 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Nam Ji | 0 - 2 | 1.06 | 90% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | 4.14 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 3 | 1.69 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | K. Nishikori | 0 - 2 | 1.59 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.49 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | J. Clarke | 1 - 2 | 1.26 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | 2.44 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-18 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | J. Rodionov | 0 - 2 | 1.80 | 54% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Matteo Arnaldi or Rei Sakamoto?
Rei Sakamoto is favourite at 1.72, which is a 57% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto?
Matteo Arnaldi is 2.24 and Rei Sakamoto is 1.72, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto?
They have met 2 times and Matteo Arnaldi leads 2-0.
Who will win Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model makes it Rei Sakamoto to win at 1.70 (Strong confidence).