Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTA. Davidovich Fokina is 8-2 over the last ten and 20-9 on hard this season. M. Berrettini is 5-5 over the last ten and 7-8 on hard this season. A. Davidovich Fokina took a medical timeout on 2026-09-29. A. Davidovich Fokina has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is A. Davidovich Fokina 0-1.
The pick is A. Davidovich Fokina to win. We make it a 64% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.57 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Davidovich Fokina | M. Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Ranking | 100 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | LWLWL |
| +1.7 | V the odds | -1.0 |
| 27-15 | Season | 20-17 |
| 20-9 | Hard 2026 | 7-8 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 1d | Days rest | 28d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| MTO | Fitness | 28d out |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Recent form
Last five completed matches, most recent first.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | A. Davidovich FokinavM. Berrettini | 1 - 2 |
| 2022-09-04 | US Open | A. Davidovich FokinavM. Berrettini | 2 - 3 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Davidovich Fokina — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | 2.22 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | N. Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | 1.42 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | 1.32 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Chengdu | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | 1.67 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | 1.73 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-07-05 | Wimbledon | Grass | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | 2.46 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | 1.51 | 65% | WON |
M. Berrettini — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | 2.32 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 3 | 1.57 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Wawrinka | 3 - 0 | 1.27 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | 2.55 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | 1.78 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-03 | Montreal | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-04 | Wimbledon | Grass | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | 1.62 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-02 | Wimbledon | Grass | A. Fils | 3 - 1 | 2.73 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 3 | 1.23 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-06-03 | French Open | Clay | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 RET | 1.55 | 63% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Matteo Berrettini?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favourite at 1.67, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini?
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 1.67 and Matteo Berrettini is 2.32, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Berrettini?
They have met 2 times and Matteo Berrettini leads 2-0.
Who will win Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model makes it Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win at 1.67 (Lean confidence).