Denis Shapovalov v Sho Shimabukuro
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWOND. Shapovalov is 6-4 over the last ten and 17-14 on hard this season. S. Shimabukuro is 4-6 over the last ten and 21-21 on hard this season. D. Shapovalov has played 4 matches in seven days.
The pick is D. Shapovalov to win 2-0. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.17 or bigger. At 1.83 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Shapovalov | S. Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Ranking | 93 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LWWWL | Last 5 | LWWLL |
| +0.7 | V the odds | -1.0 |
| 19-20 | Season | 30-26 |
| 17-14 | Hard 2026 | 21-21 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 7d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | D. ShapovalovvS. Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Shapovalov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | 1.36 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | 2.37 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1 - 2 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | 1.20 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 0 - 2 | 1.75 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 | 4.46 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | L. van Assche | 3 - 0 | 1.67 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 3 | 1.72 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | 3.05 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | 1.70 | 57% | WON |
S. Shimabukuro — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | 3.42 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | H. Gaston | 0 - 2 | 2.24 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | A. Shepp | 0 - 2 | 1.33 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | J. Watt | 1 - 2 | 1.24 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | 3.90 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Winston-Salem | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | 2.98 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | 3.74 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | J.J. Wolf | 1 - 2 | 2.12 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | H. Dellien | 2 - 0 | 1.21 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | M. Cilic | 0 - 2 | 2.11 | 54% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Denis Shapovalov or Sho Shimabukuro?
Denis Shapovalov is favourite at 1.36, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro?
Denis Shapovalov is 1.36 and Sho Shimabukuro is 3.42, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Denis Shapovalov and Sho Shimabukuro?
They have met 1 time and Denis Shapovalov leads 1-0.
Who will win Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro?
Our model makes it Denis Shapovalov to win 2-0 at 1.83 (Lean confidence).