Denis Shapovalov v Karen Khachanov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanK. Khachanov is 6-4 over the last ten and 20-16 on hard this season. D. Shapovalov is 6-4 over the last ten and 20-16 on hard this season. D. Shapovalov retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is D. Shapovalov 1-0.
The pick is K. Khachanov to win. We make it a 59% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.70 or bigger. At 1.61 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Shapovalov | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Ranking | 25 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| LWLWW | Last 5 | LLWWL |
| +1.3 | V the odds | +0.3 |
| 22-22 | Season | 29-25 |
| 20-16 | Hard 2026 | 20-16 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 4d | Days rest | 6d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| retired | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-07 | Wimbledon | K. KhachanovvD. Shapovalov | 4-6 6-3 7-5 1-6 4-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Shapovalov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.71 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ShapovalovFritzPoints won44%56%Serve points won59%74%Return points won26%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved8 of 103 of 3Aces82Double faults52 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | R. Bertola | 1.32 | 73% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 ShapovalovBertolaPoints won61%39%Serve points won80%51%Return points won49%20%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 25 of 9Aces62Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | RET | 6.20 | 85% | LOST |
Games in each set6-7 1-2 ShapovalovAlcarazPoints won45%55%Serve points won48%57%Return points won43%52%Games held4 of 75 of 8Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces10Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 1.72 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 3-6 6-4 ShapovalovTabiloPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%62%Return points won38%38%Games held12 of 1512 of 16Break points saved1 of 41 of 5Aces113Double faults50 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 1.36 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-1 ShapovalovShimabukuroPoints won61%39%Serve points won72%50%Return points won50%28%Games held9 of 105 of 9Break points saved5 of 63 of 7Aces111Double faults26 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 3-6 3-6 ShapovalovHurkaczPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%74%Return points won26%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 15Break points saved2 of 53 of 3Aces148Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 ShapovalovMannarinoPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held14 of 1411 of 15Break points saved4 of 44 of 8Aces146Double faults91 | |||||||
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | V. Kopriva | 1.30 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 ShapovalovKoprivaPoints won61%39%Serve points won77%53%Return points won47%23%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved0 of 12 of 6Aces40Double faults50 | |||||||
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1.75 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 ShapovalovGriekspoorPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%75%Return points won25%32%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved3 of 41 of 3Aces116Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 4.46 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 4-6 ShapovalovSheltonPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held15 of 2118 of 22Break points saved5 of 114 of 8Aces814Double faults77 | |||||||
K. Khachanov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 4.69 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 KhachanovAlcarazPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%66%Return points won34%46%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved6 of 90 of 2Aces43Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | 2.05 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-7 KhachanovBublikPoints won50%50%Serve points won75%78%Return points won22%25%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved5 of 54 of 5Aces821Double faults53 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Machac | 1.38 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 4-6 7-6 KhachanovMachacPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved14 of 154 of 6Aces143Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | R. Sakamoto | 1.39 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 KhachanovSakamotoPoints won61%39%Serve points won88%54%Return points won46%12%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 07 of 10Aces95Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2.13 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 KhachanovMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won65%75%Return points won25%35%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved1 of 31 of 1Aces34Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1.30 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 KhachanovMannarinoPoints won60%40%Serve points won76%55%Return points won45%24%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 10 of 4Aces103Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Fery | 1.44 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-7 7-6 KhachanovFeryPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%63%Return points won37%38%Games held15 of 1815 of 18Break points saved8 of 1110 of 13Aces116Double faults27 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1.68 | 58% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 2-6 KhachanovHurkaczPoints won44%56%Serve points won66%75%Return points won25%34%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved0 of 21 of 1Aces78Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | A. Molcan | 1.23 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-3 KhachanovMolcanPoints won59%41%Serve points won85%67%Return points won33%15%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 01 of 3Aces71Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2.34 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 KhachanovAuger-AliassimePoints won59%41%Serve points won80%60%Return points won40%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 01 of 4Aces49Double faults21 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Denis Shapovalov or Karen Khachanov?
Karen Khachanov is favourite at 1.61, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov?
Denis Shapovalov is 2.41 and Karen Khachanov is 1.61, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Denis Shapovalov and Karen Khachanov?
They have met 1 time and Denis Shapovalov leads 1-0.
Who will win Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model makes it Karen Khachanov to win at 1.61 (Lean confidence).