ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00
Cameron Norrie v Matteo Arnaldi
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanC. Norrie to win1.43
C. Norrie is 3-7 over the last ten and 19-17 on hard this season. M. Arnaldi is 3-7 over the last ten and 4-12 on hard this season. The head to head is C. Norrie 0-1.
The pick is C. Norrie to win. We make it a 71% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.41 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Norrie | M. Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Ranking | 38 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| LWLLL | Last 5 | LLLWL |
| -1.1 | V the odds | -1.1 |
| 24-26 | Season | 20-20 |
| 19-17 | Hard 2026 | 4-12 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 4d | Days rest | 6d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
C. NorrieFAV1.4368%
M. Arnaldi3.0032%
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
C. Norrie0
M. Arnaldi1
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-02 | ATP US Open | M. ArnaldivC. Norrie | 6-3 6-4 6-3 |
This season & this event
C. Norrie
M. Arnaldi
24-26
19-17
Lost R16 to V. Vacherot
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
20-20
4-12
Did not play
Lost R64 to H. Rune
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Cameron Norrie
United Kingdom
Matteo Arnaldi
Italy
40
31
United Kingdom
21–20
0
15–12
5–6
0–2
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
38
25
Italy
20–18
1
4–9
14–7
2–2
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Norrie — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 4.85 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 NorrieMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%65%Return points won35%39%Games held12 of 1513 of 16Break points saved3 of 68 of 11Aces112Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cerundolo | 2.77 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-1 NorrieCerundoloPoints won55%45%Serve points won64%52%Return points won48%36%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved1 of 12 of 6Aces05Double faults04 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Bonzi | 1.85 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 NorrieBonziPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%69%Return points won31%42%Games held10 of 1312 of 14Break points saved3 of 63 of 5Aces714Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.57 | 62% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 4-6 NorrieSvrcinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won56%57%Return points won43%44%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 97 of 11Aces22Double faults16 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | A. Zverev | 6.87 | 86% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 NorrieZverevPoints won44%56%Serve points won64%76%Return points won24%36%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 3Aces315Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | L. van Assche | 1.47 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 2-6 2-6 3-6 NorrieAsschePoints won42%58%Serve points won53%69%Return points won31%47%Games held10 of 1816 of 19Break points saved3 of 111 of 4Aces68Double faults35 | |||||||
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Zverev | 4.06 | 76% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 3-6 3-6 NorrieZverevPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%72%Return points won28%41%Games held11 of 1412 of 13Break points saved13 of 162 of 3Aces316Double faults65 | |||||||
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-4 NorriePrizmicPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved4 of 51 of 4Aces311Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-08-09 | Montreal | Hard | A. Fils | 3.02 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 6-7 NorrieFilsPoints won45%55%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved6 of 84 of 4Aces45Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2.74 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 7-6 6-1 NorrieMinaurPoints won52%48%Serve points won57%53%Return points won47%43%Games held10 of 159 of 16Break points saved8 of 133 of 10Aces73Double faults35 | |||||||
M. Arnaldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | L. Darderi | 1.79 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 2-6 ArnaldiDarderiPoints won43%57%Serve points won58%74%Return points won26%42%Games held7 of 1010 of 10Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces66Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | L. Musetti | 2.80 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 4-6 ArnaldiMusettiPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%70%Return points won30%45%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved1 of 56 of 6Aces05Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Fritz | 4.27 | 77% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 4-6 ArnaldiFritzPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved4 of 74 of 5Aces49Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Tomic | 1.46 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-1 ArnaldiTomicPoints won62%38%Serve points won76%52%Return points won48%24%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved4 of 43 of 7Aces62Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 10.41 | 91% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 1-6 ArnaldiAlcarazPoints won45%55%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 72 of 3Aces11Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2.12 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 ArnaldiSakamotoPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%66%Return points won34%35%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved2 of 41 of 3Aces48Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1.61 | 60% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 3-6 2-6 6-7 ArnaldiDuckworthPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%63%Return points won37%41%Games held14 of 2017 of 21Break points saved13 of 1911 of 15Aces516Double faults74 | |||||||
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2.18 | 55% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-4 4-6 ArnaldiLandalucePoints won49%51%Serve points won56%58%Return points won42%44%Games held9 of 1510 of 15Break points saved8 of 144 of 9Aces84Double faults47 | |||||||
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2.84 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 4-6 3-6 ArnaldiGriekspoorPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 91 of 5Aces104Double faults45 | |||||||
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Marozsan | 2.30 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 2-6 6-4 ArnaldiMarozsanPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%68%Return points won32%37%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved2 of 55 of 8Aces54Double faults72 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Cameron Norrie or Matteo Arnaldi?
Cameron Norrie is favourite at 1.43, which is a 68% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Cameron Norrie is 1.43 and Matteo Arnaldi is 3.00, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi?
They have met 1 time and Matteo Arnaldi leads 1-0.
Who will win Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model makes it Cameron Norrie to win at 1.43 (Lean confidence).