ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

B. Nakashima to win1.67

Worth backing at 1.55 or bigger · our chance 65% · market 58/42, us 65/35

B. Nakashima is 5-5 over the last ten and 33-18 on hard this season. M. Berrettini is 5-5 over the last ten and 11-12 on hard this season. M. Berrettini took a medical timeout on 2026-10-20. The head to head is B. Nakashima 1-1.

The pick is B. Nakashima to win. We make it a 65% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.55 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

B. Nakashima		M. Berrettini
18	Ranking	46
5-5	Last 10	5-5
LLWWL	Last 5	LWWLL
-1.3	V the odds	-0.5
39-23	Season	24-21
33-18	Hard 2026	11-12
1	Last 7 days	3
6d	Days rest	3d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head 1-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

B. NakashimaFAV1.6758%

M. Berrettini2.2942%

Market says58% Nakashima

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

B. NakashimaLLWWL

M. BerrettiniLWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

B. Nakashima1

M. Berrettini1

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-10-09	Shanghai	M. BerrettinivB. Nakashima	6-7 5-7
2022-01-17	Australian Open	B. NakashimavM. Berrettini	6-4 2-6 6-7 3-6

This season & this event

B. Nakashima

M. Berrettini

39-23

33-18

Lost R64 to A. Muller

Lost R64 to U. Humbert

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

24-21

11-12

Did not play

Lost R64 to A. Popyrin

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Brandon Nakashima

USA

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

USA

34–20

25–13

5–5

4–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Italy

21–18

7–7

12–10

2–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

B. Nakashima — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. Griekspoor	1.52	64%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-4 6-7 NakashimaGriekspoorPoints won46%54%Serve points won66%75%Return points won25%34%Games held12 of 1513 of 14Break points saved4 of 72 of 3Aces1217Double faults11
2026-10-23	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cobolli	1.61	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 4-6 4-6 NakashimaCobolliPoints won47%53%Serve points won59%69%Return points won31%41%Games held12 of 1513 of 15Break points saved7 of 103 of 5Aces133Double faults12
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	K. Jacquet	1.56	62%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 NakashimaJacquetPoints won56%44%Serve points won72%55%Return points won45%28%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 34 of 7Aces138Double faults04
2026-10-19	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	H. Medjedovic	1.36	71%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-2 NakashimaMedjedovicPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%74%Return points won26%21%Games held16 of 1614 of 16Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces2714Double faults03
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	A. Bublik	1.87	52%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-7 NakashimaBublikPoints won45%55%Serve points won70%81%Return points won19%30%Games held15 of 1617 of 17Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces1222Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	M. Berrettini	1.64	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-5 NakashimaBerrettiniPoints won51%49%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved3 of 33 of 4Aces512Double faults14
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	U. Humbert	1.48	66%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 NakashimaHumbertPoints won36%64%Serve points won52%88%Return points won12%48%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved9 of 120 of 0Aces16Double faults21
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	J. Mensik	2.27	57%	WON
Games in each set6-1 3-6 10-7 NakashimaMensikPoints won53%47%Serve points won72%67%Return points won33%28%Games held7 of 86 of 8Break points saved1 of 21 of 3Aces32Double faults11
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	A. Michelsen	1.45	67%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 4-6 NakashimaMichelsenPoints won44%56%Serve points won63%75%Return points won25%37%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved3 of 72 of 3Aces104Double faults44
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	S. Baez	1.14	85%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 6-0 NakashimaBaezPoints won67%33%Serve points won75%42%Return points won58%25%Games held11 of 113 of 10Break points saved3 of 34 of 11Aces120Double faults04

M. Berrettini — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-30	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. De Minaur		3.01	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 BerrettiniMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%70%Return points won30%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces45Double faults02
2026-10-29	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	F. Cobolli	RET	1.93	51%	WON
Games in each set5-2 BerrettiniCobolliPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held4 of 42 of 3Break points saved0 of 04 of 5Aces30Double faults01
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. M. Etcheverry		1.58	61%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BerrettiniEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%70%Return points won30%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces126Double faults01
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	K. Jacquet		1.75	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniJacquetPoints won48%52%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 15 of 5Aces1316Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	B. Nakashima		2.40	59%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 3Aces125Double faults41
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	A. Kovacevic		1.52	64%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniKovacevicPoints won58%42%Serve points won84%59%Return points won41%16%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces233Double faults44
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo		1.62	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 BerrettiniVallejoPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces45Double faults00
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina		2.32	58%	WON
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-4 BerrettiniFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 71 of 3Aces164Double faults12
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	M. Navone		1.57	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 6-7 BerrettiniNavonePoints won48%52%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held17 of 2018 of 20Break points saved4 of 77 of 9Aces155Double faults64
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	S. Wawrinka		1.27	76%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 6-0 BerrettiniWawrinkaPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%56%Return points won44%32%Games held13 of 1510 of 15Break points saved11 of 132 of 7Aces137Double faults36

Common questions

Who is favourite, Brandon Nakashima or Matteo Berrettini?

Brandon Nakashima is favourite at 1.67, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini?

Brandon Nakashima is 1.67 and Matteo Berrettini is 2.29, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Berrettini?

They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.

Who will win Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini?

Our model makes it Brandon Nakashima to win at 1.67 (Strong confidence).

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