ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-02 10:00

Andrey Rublev v Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

T. M. Etcheverry to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.60 or bigger · our chance 63% · market 69/31, us 66/34

T. M. Etcheverry is 3-7 over the last ten and 13-16 on hard this season. A. Rublev is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-16 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Rublev 1-1.

The pick is T. M. Etcheverry to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.60 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

A. Rublev		T. M. Etcheverry
23	Ranking	31
5-5	Last 10	3-7
LLLLW	Last 5	LLLLL
-1.4	V the odds	-1.7
35-24	Season	27-27
18-16	Hard 2026	13-16
1	Last 7 days	1
6d	Days rest	6d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

A. RublevFAV1.4069%

T. M. Etcheverry3.1231%

Market says69% Rublev

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

A. RublevLLLLW

T. M. EtcheverryLLLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

A. Rublev1

T. M. Etcheverry1

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-06-19	Halle	A. RublevvT. M. Etcheverry	3-6 7-6 6-7
2024-08-08	Montreal	T. M. EtcheverryvA. Rublev	6-7 2-6

This season & this event

A. Rublev

T. M. Etcheverry

35-24

18-16

Lost R16 to B. Shelton

Lost R32 to F. Cerundolo

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

27-27

13-16

Lost R64 to C. Ugo Carabelli

Lost R32 to G. Dimitrov

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Andrey Rublev

World

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

World

33–20

17–12

16–6

0–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

26–25

8–12

18–10

0–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

A. Rublev — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. Paul	2.11	54%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 2-6 RublevPaulPoints won43%57%Serve points won53%68%Return points won32%47%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved7 of 111 of 2Aces34Double faults11
2026-10-21	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	A. Mannarino	1.31	74%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 RublevMannarinoPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%68%Return points won32%37%Games held12 of 1413 of 14Break points saved7 of 95 of 6Aces136Double faults31
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	R. Sakamoto	1.38	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 RublevSakamotoPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%71%Return points won29%33%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 32 of 2Aces98Double faults21
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	A. De Minaur	2.09	54%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 2-6 3-6 RublevMinaurPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held8 of 129 of 12Break points saved7 of 119 of 12Aces71Double faults21
2026-10-03	Beijing	Hard	R. Safiullin	1.71	57%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-4 RublevSafiullinPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held12 of 1311 of 14Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces1215Double faults13
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	T. Griekspoor	1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set6-4 5-7 7-6 RublevGriekspoorPoints won50%50%Serve points won71%72%Return points won28%29%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved4 of 55 of 6Aces1919Double faults24
2026-09-29	Hangzhou	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 RublevMedvedevPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%72%Return points won28%33%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces423Double faults12
2026-09-28	Hangzhou	Hard	K. Jacquet	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 RublevJacquetPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%63%Return points won37%20%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces56Double faults11
2026-09-27	Hangzhou	Hard	H. Gaston	1.25	78%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-6 6-1 RublevGastonPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held13 of 1610 of 15Break points saved3 of 610 of 15Aces115Double faults45
2026-09-25	Hangzhou	Hard	R. Hijikata	1.38	70%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 RublevHijikataPoints won59%41%Serve points won82%56%Return points won44%18%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces123Double faults01

T. M. Etcheverry — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	M. Berrettini	2.52	61%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 EtcheverryBerrettiniPoints won45%55%Serve points won70%73%Return points won27%30%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces612Double faults10
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	M. Bellucci	2.09	53%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-2 4-6 EtcheverryBellucciPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%67%Return points won33%26%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved5 of 67 of 9Aces1015Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	D. Svrcina	1.66	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 5-7 EtcheverrySvrcinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%62%Return points won38%37%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 910 of 13Aces113Double faults14
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	3.53	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 EtcheverryTsitsipasPoints won45%55%Serve points won68%81%Return points won19%32%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces59Double faults10
2026-09-26	Hangzhou	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.61	60%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 EtcheverryJacquetPoints won44%56%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 95 of 6Aces37Double faults12
2026-09-06	US Open	Hard	A. Michelsen	3.38	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 4-6 EtcheverryMichelsenPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%71%Return points won29%34%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved1 of 44 of 5Aces612Double faults07
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	M. Navone	1.77	55%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 6-3 EtcheverryNavonePoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held14 of 1510 of 14Break points saved0 of 14 of 8Aces84Double faults11
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	J. Fearnley	1.75	56%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3 EtcheverryFearnleyPoints won53%47%Serve points won61%55%Return points won45%39%Games held14 of 1811 of 18Break points saved8 of 1211 of 18Aces910Double faults511
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	V. Kopriva	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 6-0 EtcheverryKoprivaPoints won64%36%Serve points won67%40%Return points won60%33%Games held11 of 135 of 12Break points saved1 of 33 of 10Aces106Double faults24
2026-08-15	Cincinnati	Hard	T. Atmane	2.62	63%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 EtcheverryAtmanePoints won46%54%Serve points won76%75%Return points won25%24%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 14 of 4Aces610Double faults03

Common questions

Who is favourite, Andrey Rublev or Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Andrey Rublev is favourite at 1.40, which is a 69% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Andrey Rublev vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Andrey Rublev is 1.40 and Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 3.12, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Andrey Rublev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.

Who will win Andrey Rublev vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?

Our model makes it Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win a set (Lean confidence).

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