Alejandro Tabilo v Tommy Paul
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTT. Paul is 6-4 over the last ten and 24-13 on hard this season. A. Tabilo is 4-6 over the last ten and 14-14 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Tabilo 0-2.
The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 72% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.40 or bigger. At 1.34 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Tabilo | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Ranking | 20 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| LLLWL | Last 5 | LWWLW |
| -0.3 | V the odds | -0.2 |
| 36-26 | Season | 39-18 |
| 14-14 | Hard 2026 | 24-13 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 5d | Days rest | 24d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 24d out |
| Head to head 0-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | A. TabilovT. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-10-06 | ATP Shanghai | T. PaulvA. Tabilo | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-06-20 | ATP London | A. TabilovT. Paul | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Tabilo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | 3.28 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.44 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 2 | 1.76 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | A. Zverev | 3 - 0 | 5.38 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 3 | 1.76 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 2.90 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | 2.27 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-02 | Washington | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | 3.29 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-08-01 | Washington | Hard | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | 3.96 | 75% | WON |
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | 1.38 | 70% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | 4.85 | 80% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1 - 3 | 1.21 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | C. Wong | 1 - 3 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 1 - 2 | 1.66 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.36 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 1 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | 1.89 | 51% | WON |
| 2026-08-08 | Montreal | Hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | 1.59 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | V. Royer | 0 - 2 | 1.19 | 81% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alejandro Tabilo or Tommy Paul?
Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.38, which is a 70% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul?
Alejandro Tabilo is 3.28 and Tommy Paul is 1.38, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Alejandro Tabilo and Tommy Paul?
They have met 3 times and Tommy Paul leads 2-1.
Who will win Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul?
Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 1.34 (Lean confidence).