Shintaro Mochizuki v Dane Sweeny
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONS. Mochizuki is 4-6 over the last ten and 15-23 on hard this season. D. Sweeny is 6-4 over the last ten and 24-22 on hard this season. The head to head is S. Mochizuki 1-0.
The pick is S. Mochizuki to win. We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.80 or bigger. At 1.75 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Mochizuki | D. Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| 120 | Ranking | 112 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLWLL | Last 5 | WLWLW |
| -0.0 | V the odds | +1.6 |
| 23-32 | Season | 30-26 |
| 15-23 | Hard 2026 | 24-22 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Defending semi | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Jinan | S. MochizukivD. Sweeny | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Montreal | S. MochizukivD. Sweeny | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Mochizuki — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Jinan | Hard | D. Sweeny | 2 - 0 | 1.75 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | F. Diaz Acosta | 0 - 2 | 2.22 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | 4.97 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Daniel | 1 - 2 | 2.22 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Faria | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 0 | 2.54 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | P. Kotov | 2 - 0 | 2.37 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Xiao | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | P. Kotov | 0 - 2 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J. Mensik | 3 - 0 | 7.50 | 87% | LOST |
D. Sweeny — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Jinan | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | 2.17 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | B. Tomic | 0 - 0 RET | 1.94 | 50% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Coppejans | 0 - 2 | 1.67 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Schoolkate | 2 - 1 | 2.29 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Bolt | 2 - 0 | 1.70 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | P. Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | 1.37 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | O. Jasika | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | Hangzhou | Hard | T. Daniel | 0 - 2 | 2.39 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 | 4.00 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | L. Musetti | 3 - 1 | 13.62 | 93% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Shintaro Mochizuki or Dane Sweeny?
Shintaro Mochizuki is favourite at 1.75, which is a 55% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny?
Shintaro Mochizuki is 1.75 and Dane Sweeny is 2.17, the prices we recorded for the Jinan match.
What is the head-to-head between Shintaro Mochizuki and Dane Sweeny?
They have met 2 times and Shintaro Mochizuki leads 2-0.
Who will win Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model makes it Shintaro Mochizuki to win at 1.75 (Lean confidence).