THE TENNIS TRADER
WEDNESDAY 07 OCTOBERMATCHES 343EVENTS 34LIVE 3ALERTS 171
ATPHardShanghai2026-10-06 09:00

Pavel Kotov v Aleksandar Vukic

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

StrongWON
P. Kotov to win1.64
Worth backing at 1.52 or bigger · our chance 66% · market 59/41, us 66/34

P. Kotov is 7-3 over the last ten and 29-9 on hard this season. A. Vukic is 4-6 over the last ten and 21-19 on hard this season. A. Vukic took a medical timeout on 2026-10-05. A. Vukic retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is P. Kotov 0-1.

The pick is P. Kotov to win. We make it a 66% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.52 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

P. KotovA. Vukic
188Ranking99
7-3Last 104-6
WLWLWLast 5WLWLL
+0.1V the odds-0.9
30-13Season25-28
29-9Hard 202621-19
1Last 7 days2
1dDays rest1d
1Wins here1
ClearFitnessMTOretired
Head to head
0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

P. KotovFAV1.6459%
A. Vukic2.3441%
Market says59% Kotov

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

P. Kotov1
A. Vukic1
Head to head2 meetings
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-06ShanghaiP. KotovvA. Vukic2 - 0
2019-08-22L'AquilaP. KotovvA. Vukic0 - 2

This season & this event

P. Kotov
A. Vukic
31-13
30-9
Did not play
Reached R128
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
25-29
21-20
Lost R64 to N. Borges
Lost R32 to T. Machac

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Pavel Kotov
World
Aleksandar Vukic
Australia
182
27
World
29–13
3
27–8
2–5
—
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
99
30
Australia
6–14
0
6–9
0–5
—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

P. Kotov — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-06ShanghaiHardA. Vukic2 - 01.6459%WON
2026-10-05ShanghaiHardM. Damm1 - 22.9568%WON
2026-09-23ChengduHardS. Mochizuki2 - 01.6160%LOST
2026-09-22ChengduHardL. Castelnuovo1 - 2——WON
2026-09-20Guangzhou 2HardM. Sharipov0 - 2——LOST
2026-09-19Guangzhou 2HardB. Tomic2 - 0——WON
2026-09-18Guangzhou 2HardR. Noguchi2 - 0——WON
2026-09-16Guangzhou 2HardA. Santillan2 - 0——WON
2026-09-15Guangzhou 2HardS. Mochizuki0 - 2——WON
2026-09-12ShanghaiHardM. Sharipov0 - 2——LOST

A. Vukic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-06ShanghaiHardP. Kotov2 - 02.3459%LOST
2026-10-05ShanghaiHardJ. Cui1 - 21.3668%WON
2026-09-29JingshanHardE. Zhu0 - 1 RET1.2875%LOST
2026-09-28JingshanHardR. Seggerman2 - 0——WON
2026-09-23HangzhouHardK. Jacquet1 - 21.9350%LOST
2026-08-31US OpenHardR. Sakamoto2 - 3——LOST
2026-08-20Quebec City (Canada) - QualificationHardS. Sakellaridis2 - 0——LOST
2026-08-19Quebec City (Canada) - QualificationHardK. Jacquet0 - 2——WON
2026-08-13CincinnatiHardDar. Blanch2 - 0——WON
2026-08-13CincinnatiHardM. Lajal1 - 2——LOST

Common questions

Who is favourite, Pavel Kotov or Aleksandar Vukic?

Pavel Kotov is favourite at 1.64, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic?

Pavel Kotov is 1.64 and Aleksandar Vukic is 2.34, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.

What is the head-to-head between Pavel Kotov and Aleksandar Vukic?

They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.

Who will win Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic?

Our model makes it Pavel Kotov to win at 1.64 (Strong confidence).

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