ChallengerHardCharlottesville2026-11-04 16:00

Murphy Cassone v Stefan Kozlov

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

S. Kozlov to win2.30

Worth backing at 2.23 or bigger · our chance 45% · market 59/41, us 55/45

S. Kozlov is 4-6 over the last ten and 17-20 on hard this season. M. Cassone is 7-3 over the last ten and 22-20 on hard this season. M. Cassone retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is M. Cassone 0-1.

The pick is S. Kozlov to win. We make it a 45% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.23 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Cassone		S. Kozlov
282	Ranking	290
7-3	Last 10	4-6
WLLLW	Last 5	WLWLW
+0.5	V the odds	-0.5
22-22	Season	25-25
22-20	Hard 2026	17-20
1	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	1d
1	Wins here	1
retired	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. CassoneFAV1.6359%

S. Kozlov2.3041%

Market says59% Cassone

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. CassoneWLLLW

S. KozlovWLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Cassone0

S. Kozlov1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-11-16	Champaign	S. KozlovvM. Cassone	7-6 7-5

This season & this event

M. Cassone

S. Kozlov

22-22

22-20

Lost R32 to R. Jodar

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

25-25

17-20

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Murphy Cassone

USA

Stefan Kozlov

USA

282

USA

21–22

20–19

—

1–3

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

290

USA

23–24

15–18

5–5

3–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Cassone — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	N. Mejia		1.56	61%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 7-5 CassoneMejiaPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%62%Return points won38%38%Games held12 of 1712 of 17Break points saved1 of 65 of 10Aces118Double faults32
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	S. Kozlov	RET	1.56	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 0-3 CassoneKozlovPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%66%Return points won34%45%Games held6 of 118 of 11Break points saved3 of 81 of 4Aces42Double faults43
2026-10-20	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	K. Miyoshi		1.69	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 CassoneMiyoshiPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%65%Return points won35%42%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved3 of 69 of 11Aces25Double faults41
2026-09-26	St. Tropez	Hard	H. Mayot	RET	2.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 2-4 CassoneMayotPoints won47%53%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held8 of 1310 of 13Break points saved7 of 123 of 6Aces63Double faults63
2026-09-25	St. Tropez	Hard	D. Masur		1.56	62%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-6 6-4 CassoneMasurPoints won51%49%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved7 of 810 of 12Aces99Double faults52
2026-09-24	St. Tropez	Hard	B. Harris		1.97	51%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 CassoneHarrisPoints won54%46%Serve points won81%73%Return points won27%19%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces46Double faults13
2026-09-22	St. Tropez	Hard	C. Tabur		1.95	50%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-3 CassoneTaburPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held12 of 1611 of 15Break points saved7 of 114 of 8Aces64Double faults48
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	P. Zahraj		1.31	73%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-5 CassoneZahrajPoints won58%42%Serve points won78%60%Return points won40%22%Games held10 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 24 of 7Aces88Double faults42
2026-09-20	St. Tropez	Hard	H. Car		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 CassoneCarPoints won61%39%Serve points won76%53%Return points won47%24%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved0 of 01 of 5Aces64Double faults21
2026-09-14	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	I. Montes-De La Torre		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 CassoneTorrePoints won53%47%Serve points won73%71%Return points won29%27%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved1 of 10 of 1Aces63Double faults32

S. Kozlov — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Charlottesville	Hard	A. Martin		1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 KozlovMartinPoints won65%35%Serve points won70%39%Return points won61%30%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved1 of 23 of 8Aces00Double faults40
2026-10-28	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. H. Rehberg		2.51	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 KozlovRehbergPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%62%Return points won38%41%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 810 of 11Aces18Double faults23
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. Cassone	RET	2.53	62%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-0 KozlovCassonePoints won54%46%Serve points won66%55%Return points won45%34%Games held8 of 116 of 11Break points saved1 of 43 of 8Aces24Double faults34
2026-10-01	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Krueger		1.81	51%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-3 3-6 KozlovKruegerPoints won46%54%Serve points won51%60%Return points won40%49%Games held7 of 139 of 13Break points saved9 of 156 of 10Aces49Double faults73
2026-09-29	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	J. K. Trotter		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 KozlovTrotterPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved0 of 11 of 5Aces04Double faults14
2026-09-21	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	C. Smith		3.20	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 KozlovSmithPoints won40%60%Serve points won51%73%Return points won27%49%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved1 of 50 of 1Aces11Double faults22
2026-09-14	Tiburon	Hard	Dar. Blanch		2.62	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 6-7 KozlovBlanchPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved5 of 86 of 10Aces15Double faults27
2026-08-13	Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	A. Mayo		2.55	62%	WON
Games in each set6-3 5-7 6-2 KozlovMayoPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%64%Return points won36%27%Games held14 of 1511 of 14Break points saved3 of 44 of 7Aces03Double faults24
2026-08-13	Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	H. Wendelken		2.15	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 1-6 KozlovWendelkenPoints won47%53%Serve points won53%61%Return points won39%47%Games held4 of 107 of 10Break points saved8 of 141 of 4Aces15Double faults03
2026-07-25	Washington	Hard	Z. Svajda		4.55	80%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 1-6 KozlovSvajdaPoints won40%60%Serve points won45%66%Return points won34%55%Games held4 of 98 of 10Break points saved5 of 104 of 6Aces35Double faults23

Common questions

Who is favourite, Murphy Cassone or Stefan Kozlov?

Murphy Cassone is favourite at 1.63, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov?

Murphy Cassone is 1.63 and Stefan Kozlov is 2.30, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.

What is the head-to-head between Murphy Cassone and Stefan Kozlov?

They have met 1 time and Stefan Kozlov leads 1-0.

Who will win Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov?

Our model makes it Stefan Kozlov to win at 2.30 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Mayo v Gray Kennedy v Chidekh Shick v Blanch Giron v Boulais