ChallengerHardCharlottesville2026-11-04 20:30

Marcos Giron v Justin Boulais

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

J. Boulais to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.79 or bigger · our chance 56% · market 79/21, us 74/26

J. Boulais is 5-5 over the last ten and 34-26 on hard this season. M. Giron is 2-8 over the last ten and 17-20 on hard this season.

The pick is J. Boulais to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.79 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Giron		J. Boulais
88	Ranking	403
2-8	Last 10	5-5
WLLLL	Last 5	WWWLL
-2.4	V the odds	-0.3
24-29	Season	34-27
17-20	Hard 2026	34-26
1	Last 7 days	3
2d	Days rest	1d
1	Wins here	3
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. GironFAV1.2179%

J. Boulais4.5921%

Market says79% Giron

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. GironWLLLL

J. BoulaisWWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Giron

J. Boulais

24-29

17-20

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

34-27

34-26

Lost R32 to C. Kingsley

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Marcos Giron

USA

Justin Boulais

Canada

USA

23–27

15–15

3–6

5–6

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

403

Canada

30–22

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Giron — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	D. Dietrich	2.59	63%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 GironDietrichPoints won55%45%Serve points won68%60%Return points won40%32%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved3 of 33 of 6Aces33Double faults31
2026-10-24	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	Y. Hanfmann	2.24	57%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 7-5 4-6 GironHanfmannPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%66%Return points won34%39%Games held10 of 1512 of 15Break points saved2 of 70 of 3Aces67Double faults13
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	J-L. Struff	2.46	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 GironStruffPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%79%Return points won21%38%Games held11 of 1211 of 12Break points saved8 of 91 of 2Aces815Double faults22
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	S. Baez	2.16	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 3-6 4-6 GironBaezPoints won49%51%Serve points won55%56%Return points won44%45%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved5 of 106 of 11Aces82Double faults20
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	J. Munar	—	—	LOST
Games in each set7-5 1-6 4-6 GironMunarPoints won47%53%Serve points won56%63%Return points won37%44%Games held9 of 1412 of 15Break points saved8 of 133 of 6Aces510Double faults20
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	I. Buse	2.46	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 3-6 7-6 1-6 GironBusePoints won46%54%Serve points won55%63%Return points won37%45%Games held14 of 2417 of 22Break points saved13 of 235 of 10Aces510Double faults65
2026-08-24	Winston-Salem	Hard	D. Suresh	1.40	69%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 GironSureshPoints won45%55%Serve points won67%75%Return points won25%33%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 74 of 4Aces517Double faults26
2026-08-13	Cincinnati	Hard	H. Rocha	1.41	68%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 GironRochaPoints won52%48%Serve points won86%62%Return points won38%14%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 01 of 1
2026-08-04	Montreal	Hard	H. Hurkacz	2.58	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-4 2-6 GironHurkaczPoints won43%57%Serve points won62%81%Return points won19%38%Games held12 of 1514 of 15Break points saved2 of 52 of 3Aces216Double faults35
2026-08-01	Montreal	Hard	P. Llamas Ruiz	1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-3 6-1 GironRuizPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%54%Return points won46%44%Games held9 of 127 of 12Break points saved6 of 91 of 6Aces46Double faults22

J. Boulais — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Charlottesville	Hard	J.J. Wolf	4.54	79%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 BoulaisWolfPoints won61%39%Serve points won68%47%Return points won53%32%Games held7 of 93 of 8Break points saved2 of 46 of 11Aces21Double faults04
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	S. Heredia	1.16	81%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 BoulaisHerediaPoints won67%33%Serve points won82%44%Return points won56%18%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 01 of 6Aces53Double faults32
2026-11-01	Charlottesville	Hard	J. Sheehy	1.43	66%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-2 6-0 BoulaisSheehyPoints won53%47%Serve points won55%49%Return points won51%45%Games held8 of 115 of 10Break points saved11 of 147 of 12Aces45Double faults45
2026-10-25	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	S. Dominko	2.26	58%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 4-6 BoulaisDominkoPoints won49%51%Serve points won69%69%Return points won31%31%Games held13 of 1515 of 16Break points saved2 of 43 of 4Aces114Double faults25
2026-09-27	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	A. Reco	1.44	64%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 BoulaisRecoPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%69%Return points won31%44%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved5 of 81 of 2Aces44Double faults11
2026-09-22	St. Tropez	Hard	H. Mayot	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-7 BoulaisMayotPoints won50%50%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held11 of 1510 of 15Break points saved5 of 97 of 12Aces22Double faults61
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Martineau	2.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 BoulaisMartineauPoints won40%60%Serve points won52%73%Return points won27%48%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved3 of 71 of 1Aces05Double faults33
2026-09-20	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Kaouk	1.36	70%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-2 BoulaisKaoukPoints won53%47%Serve points won51%46%Return points won54%49%Games held8 of 146 of 15Break points saved7 of 1313 of 22Aces44Double faults67
2026-09-14	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	M. Bobichon	1.58	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 BoulaisBobichonPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%68%Return points won32%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved1 of 34 of 5Aces28Double faults04
2026-09-13	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	T. Arribage	1.13	85%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 BoulaisArribagePoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held4 of 90 of 8Break points saved4 of 91 of 9Aces40Double faults35

Common questions

Who is favourite, Marcos Giron or Justin Boulais?

Marcos Giron is favourite at 1.21, which is a 79% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Marcos Giron vs Justin Boulais?

Marcos Giron is 1.21 and Justin Boulais is 4.59, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.

Who will win Marcos Giron vs Justin Boulais?

Our model makes it Justin Boulais to win a set (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Cassone v Kozlov Mayo v Gray Kennedy v Chidekh Shick v Blanch