ChallengerHardNingbo · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Mili Poljicak v Yuta Shimizu

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

Y. Shimizu to win1.82

Worth backing at 1.68 or bigger · our chance 60% · market 48/52, us 40/60

Y. Shimizu is 4-6 over the last ten and 23-21 on hard this season. M. Poljicak is 3-7 over the last ten and 12-6 on hard this season.

The pick is Y. Shimizu to win. We make it a 60% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.68 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Poljicak		Y. Shimizu
286	Ranking	393
3-7	Last 10	4-6
LLWLW	Last 5	LLWLL
-2.4	V the odds	-1.1
38-23	Season	23-21
12-6	Hard 2026	23-21
0	Last 7 days	0
15d	Days rest	9d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Poljicak2.0148%

Y. ShimizuFAV1.8252%

Market says52% Shimizu

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. PoljicakLLWLW

Y. ShimizuLLWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Poljicak

Y. Shimizu

38-23

12-6

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

23-21

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

286

Croatia

38–22

7–5

31–17

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

393

Japan

23–20

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Poljicak — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-12	Olbia	Hard	F. Maestrelli	2.36	59%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 PoljicakMaestrelliPoints won38%62%Serve points won54%78%Return points won22%46%Games held5 of 78 of 8Break points saved2 of 41 of 1Aces45Double faults00
2026-10-05	Villena	Clay	M. H. Rehberg	2.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 3-6 PoljicakRehbergPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held11 of 1513 of 15Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces128Double faults32
2026-10-04	Villena	Clay	P. Brady	1.81	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-5 PoljicakBradyPoints won50%50%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held14 of 1514 of 16Break points saved4 of 52 of 4Aces134Double faults24
2026-09-30	Porto	Clay	H. Rocha	4.03	76%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-6 PoljicakRochaPoints won38%62%Serve points won43%68%Return points won32%57%Games held2 of 77 of 7Break points saved7 of 122 of 2Aces15Double faults75
2026-09-28	Porto	Clay	M. Basing	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 PoljicakBasingPoints won64%36%Serve points won77%46%Return points won54%23%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved0 of 13 of 8Aces50Double faults13
2026-09-07	Genova	Clay	S. Sakellaridis	2.83	66%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 PoljicakSakellaridisPoints won45%55%Serve points won62%69%Return points won31%38%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved1 of 43 of 4Aces56Double faults21
2026-08-31	Como	Clay	M. Dodig	2.32	59%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 PoljicakDodigPoints won37%63%Serve points won57%82%Return points won18%43%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved1 of 40 of 0Aces27Double faults10
2026-08-24	Augsburg	Clay	M. Schoenhaus	1.95	51%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 PoljicakSchoenhausPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%75%Return points won25%44%Games held7 of 109 of 9Break points saved7 of 104 of 4Aces51Double faults20
2026-08-20	M25 Slovenj Gradec (Slovenia)	Clay	S. Dominko	1.35	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 PoljicakDominkoPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%72%Return points won28%45%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved6 of 104 of 5
2026-08-18	M25 Slovenj Gradec (Slovenia)	Clay	V. Urankar	1.02	91%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 PoljicakUrankarPoints won62%38%Serve points won70%45%Return points won55%30%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved1 of 23 of 8

Y. Shimizu — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-18	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Purcell	—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 ShimizuPurcellPoints won38%62%Serve points won50%74%Return points won26%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved1 of 54 of 4Aces111Double faults11
2026-10-01	Jingshan	Hard	B. Tomic	2.46	61%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 6-7 ShimizuTomicPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%71%Return points won29%36%Games held13 of 1614 of 16Break points saved2 of 57 of 9Aces86Double faults30
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	3.00	69%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 ShimizuSakellaridisPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 11 of 4Aces512Double faults34
2026-09-15	Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	P. Sekulic	1.60	60%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-2 5-7 ShimizuSekulicPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%65%Return points won35%42%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 95 of 9Aces96Double faults59
2026-09-12	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	A. Weber	1.62	60%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 ShimizuWeberPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%66%Return points won34%43%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved6 of 92 of 3Aces26Double faults32
2026-09-11	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	H. Moriya	1.32	73%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 7-6 ShimizuMoriyaPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%63%Return points won37%40%Games held14 of 1814 of 18Break points saved13 of 1712 of 16Aces147Double faults75
2026-09-09	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	K. Samrej	1.46	66%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 ShimizuSamrejPoints won57%43%Serve points won81%65%Return points won35%19%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces97Double faults22
2026-09-08	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	A. Vishal Balsekar	1.07	87%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 ShimizuBalsekarPoints won64%36%Serve points won69%41%Return points won59%31%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 05 of 10Aces30Double faults21
2026-08-18	Roehampton (United Kingdom)	Hard	A. Matusevich	2.13	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 ShimizuMatusevichPoints won45%55%Serve points won52%62%Return points won38%48%Games held6 of 118 of 11Break points saved1 of 63 of 6Aces79Double faults46
2026-07-23	Winnipeg	Hard	J. Monday	2.07	54%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 3-6 ShimizuMondayPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held10 of 1412 of 14Break points saved8 of 123 of 5Aces46Double faults78

Common questions

Who is favourite, Mili Poljicak or Yuta Shimizu?

Yuta Shimizu is favourite at 1.82, which is a 52% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Mili Poljicak vs Yuta Shimizu?

Mili Poljicak is 2.01 and Yuta Shimizu is 1.82, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

Who will win Mili Poljicak vs Yuta Shimizu?

Our model makes it Yuta Shimizu to win at 1.82 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Broom v Santillan Fomin v Broady Hsu v Smith Milic v Uchida Schoolkate v Imamura Sun v Matsuoka