ChallengerHardNingbo · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Hsiou Hsu Yu v Keegan Smith

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

K. Smith to win 2-01.90

Price too short today - wait for 2.22 or bigger · our chance 45% · market 31/69, us 25/75

K. Smith is 6-4 over the last ten and 35-22 on hard this season. Y. H. Hsu is 6-4 over the last ten and 25-16 on hard this season.

The pick is K. Smith to win 2-0. We make it a 45% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.22 or bigger. At 1.90 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

Y. H. Hsu		K. Smith
296	Ranking	202
6-4	Last 10	6-4
LLLLW	Last 5	LWWLW
-1.0	V the odds	+1.1
30-24	Season	43-29
25-16	Hard 2026	35-22
0	Last 7 days	3
8d	Days rest	4d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

Y. H. Hsu3.0031%

K. SmithFAV1.3669%

Market says69% Smith

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Y. H. HsuLLLLW

K. SmithLWWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

Y. H. Hsu

K. Smith

30-24

25-16

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

43-29

35-22

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

Keegan Smith

USA

296

Taiwan

30–23

25–15

3–3

2–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

202

USA

39–27

31–21

4–2

4–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

Y. H. Hsu — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	J. Cui		2.20	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 HsuCuiPoints won42%58%Serve points won48%65%Return points won35%52%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved2 of 71 of 3Aces66Double faults01
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	O. Wallin		1.82	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 2-6 5-7 HsuWallinPoints won50%50%Serve points won55%56%Return points won44%45%Games held8 of 159 of 14Break points saved9 of 166 of 11Aces68Double faults22
2026-09-08	Shanghai	Hard	I. Ivashka		1.93	50%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 HsuIvashkaPoints won37%63%Serve points won56%88%Return points won12%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces14Double faults02
2026-09-02	Zhangjiagang	Hard	J. K. Trotter		1.52	63%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 HsuTrotterPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held7 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 53 of 5Aces513Double faults03
2026-09-01	Zhangjiagang	Hard	E. Ymer	RET	1.59	60%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-5 HsuYmerPoints won53%47%Serve points won75%63%Return points won37%25%Games held10 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 15 of 6Aces67Double faults13
2026-08-23	M25 Taipei	Hard	M. Dellavedova		1.37	69%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HsuDellavedovaPoints won60%40%Serve points won76%54%Return points won46%24%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 32 of 5
2026-08-22	M25 Taipei	Hard	M. Imamura		1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 HsuImamuraPoints won60%40%Serve points won65%44%Return points won56%35%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved1 of 13 of 8
2026-08-21	M25 Taipei	Hard	R. Matsuda		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HsuMatsudaPoints won57%43%Serve points won63%57%Return points won43%37%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved7 of 70 of 3
2026-08-20	M25 Taipei	Hard	K. S. Chen		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 HsuChenPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%53%Return points won47%33%Games held8 of 106 of 11Break points saved2 of 47 of 11
2026-08-18	M25 Taipei	Hard	K. Wang		1.01	97%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 HsuWangPoints won54%46%Serve points won77%61%Return points won39%23%Games held10 of 109 of 12Break points saved0 of 05 of 7

K. Smith — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-23	Guangzhou	Hard	T. Schoolkate	2.49	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 SmithSchoolkatePoints won48%52%Serve points won77%78%Return points won22%23%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 11 of 1Aces1118Double faults25
2026-10-22	Guangzhou	Hard	F. Sun	1.54	62%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-4 7-6 SmithSunPoints won52%48%Serve points won69%65%Return points won35%31%Games held13 of 1613 of 15Break points saved1 of 42 of 4Aces125Double faults43
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Purcell	2.77	65%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 SmithPurcellPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%68%Return points won32%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 14 of 5Aces1911Double faults01
2026-10-16	Jinan	Hard	M. Landaluce	3.48	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 2-6 3-6 SmithLandalucePoints won45%55%Serve points won57%68%Return points won32%43%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved6 of 105 of 7Aces46Double faults34
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	V. Kopriva	2.72	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 SmithKoprivaPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%67%Return points won33%30%Games held13 of 1411 of 13Break points saved3 of 42 of 4Aces83Double faults31
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	2.36	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 SmithSakellaridisPoints won50%50%Serve points won74%71%Return points won29%26%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 56 of 7Aces67Double faults11
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	H. Moriya	1.38	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 3-6 SmithMoriyaPoints won51%49%Serve points won60%59%Return points won41%40%Games held11 of 1610 of 14Break points saved3 of 88 of 12Aces151Double faults26
2026-10-02	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Krueger	1.79	54%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 SmithKruegerPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%78%Return points won22%32%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 61 of 1Aces142Double faults40
2026-10-01	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	B. Nakashima	1.75	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-5 SmithNakashimaPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held13 of 1513 of 16Break points saved7 of 911 of 14Aces177Double faults12
2026-09-29	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	K. Bigun	1.33	71%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-2 SmithBigunPoints won52%48%Serve points won66%61%Return points won39%34%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved8 of 95 of 7Aces149Double faults92

Common questions

Who is favourite, Hsiou Hsu Yu or Keegan Smith?

Keegan Smith is favourite at 1.36, which is a 69% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Hsiou Hsu Yu vs Keegan Smith?

Hsiou Hsu Yu is 3.00 and Keegan Smith is 1.36, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

Who will win Hsiou Hsu Yu vs Keegan Smith?

Our model makes it Keegan Smith to win 2-0 at 1.90 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Broom v Santillan Fomin v Broady Milic v Uchida Poljicak v Shimizu Schoolkate v Imamura Sun v Matsuoka