ChallengerHardNingbo · 1/16-finals2026-10-27 03:00

Fajing Sun v Hayato Matsuoka

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

F. Sun to win2.20

Worth backing at 2.19 or bigger · our chance 46% · market 42/58, us 46/54

F. Sun is 5-5 over the last ten and 31-27 on hard this season. H. Matsuoka is 4-6 over the last ten and 33-25 on hard this season. The head to head is F. Sun 2-1.

The pick is F. Sun to win. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.19 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Sun		H. Matsuoka
296	Ranking	242
5-5	Last 10	4-6
LWLLW	Last 5	LLWWL
-0.8	V the odds	-1.8
31-30	Season	34-27
31-27	Hard 2026	33-25
1	Last 7 days	0
5d	Days rest	8d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. Sun2.2042%

H. MatsuokaFAV1.6158%

Market says58% Matsuoka

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. SunLWLLW

H. MatsuokaLLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

F. Sun2

H. Matsuoka1

Head to head3 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-08-14	Astana	F. SunvH. Matsuoka	5-7 5-7
2026-01-06	Nonthaburi	H. MatsuokavF. Sun	2-6 6-2 2-6
2025-10-31	M25 Qian Daohu	F. SunvH. Matsuoka	3-6 6-2 6-0

This season & this event

F. Sun

H. Matsuoka

31-30

31-27

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

34-27

33-25

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Fajing Sun

China

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

296

China

30–29

30–26

0–2

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

242

Japan

34–26

33–24

—

1–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Sun — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-22	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Smith		2.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 4-6 6-7 SunSmithPoints won48%52%Serve points won65%69%Return points won31%35%Games held13 of 1513 of 16Break points saved2 of 41 of 4Aces512Double faults34
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	Sun Qian		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 SunQianPoints won58%42%Serve points won78%58%Return points won42%22%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 15 of 8Aces510Double faults23
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	J. Cui		2.06	53%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 SunCuiPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%64%Return points won36%42%Games held7 of 1010 of 11Break points saved3 of 63 of 4Aces44Double faults23
2026-10-09	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	A. Kachmazov		2.27	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 SunKachmazovPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%67%Return points won33%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved7 of 98 of 8Aces016Double faults24
2026-10-07	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	K. Samrej		1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 SunSamrejPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%67%Return points won33%24%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 21 of 3Aces66Double faults24
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	A. Wang	RET	1.07	89%	WON
Games in each set6-3 1-0 SunWangPoints won63%37%Serve points won91%54%Return points won46%9%Games held5 of 53 of 5Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces37Double faults06
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	B. Tomic		2.26	57%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 7-6 3-6 SunTomicPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%71%Return points won29%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 16Break points saved11 of 142 of 3Aces714Double faults20
2026-09-24	Hangzhou	Hard	R. Safiullin		4.73	79%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-6 SunSafiullinPoints won35%65%Serve points won45%79%Return points won21%55%Games held1 of 85 of 6Break points saved5 of 121 of 2Aces45Double faults12
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	B. Tomic		2.49	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 SunTomicPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held9 of 117 of 11Break points saved2 of 48 of 12Aces17Double faults14
2026-09-22	Hangzhou	Hard	M. Dellavedova		—	—	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 7-6 SunDellavedovaPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%59%Return points won41%29%Games held12 of 1411 of 14Break points saved0 of 28 of 11Aces65Double faults11

H. Matsuoka — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Wu	4.92	81%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 MatsuokaWuPoints won39%61%Serve points won51%76%Return points won24%49%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved4 of 80 of 1Aces36Double faults40
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	A. Vukic	2.23	57%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 MatsuokaVukicPoints won41%59%Serve points won47%64%Return points won36%53%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved4 of 81 of 2Aces20Double faults33
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	J. McCabe	1.69	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MatsuokaMcCabePoints won56%44%Serve points won71%54%Return points won46%29%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved2 of 33 of 7Aces64Double faults12
2026-10-11	Jinan	Hard	Sun Qian	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-7 6-4 MatsuokaQianPoints won54%46%Serve points won62%53%Return points won47%38%Games held12 of 159 of 15Break points saved5 of 83 of 9Aces33Double faults47
2026-09-23	Hangzhou	Hard	T. Daniel	2.75	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MatsuokaDanielPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%65%Return points won35%41%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved2 of 40 of 1Aces54Double faults41
2026-09-22	Hangzhou	Hard	A. Weber	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 MatsuokaWeberPoints won56%44%Serve points won79%58%Return points won42%21%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved1 of 27 of 10Aces60Double faults12
2026-09-14	Guangzhou 2	Hard	L. Harris	4.26	77%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-7 MatsuokaHarrisPoints won50%50%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held17 of 1818 of 18Break points saved4 of 50 of 0Aces423Double faults10
2026-09-07	Shanghai	Hard	Ja. Delaney	1.35	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 6-7 6-7 MatsuokaDelaneyPoints won53%47%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved0 of 15 of 8Aces913Double faults13
2026-09-01	Zhangjiagang	Hard	E. Aguiard	1.37	70%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MatsuokaAguiardPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%69%Return points won31%42%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved0 of 34 of 5Aces37Double faults30
2026-08-16	Astana	Hard	A. Dougaz	1.57	59%	WON
Games in each set0-6 6-1 7-6 MatsuokaDougazPoints won52%48%Serve points won63%59%Return points won41%37%Games held9 of 1210 of 13Break points saved4 of 74 of 7Aces15Double faults44

Common questions

Who is favourite, Fajing Sun or Hayato Matsuoka?

Hayato Matsuoka is favourite at 1.61, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka?

Fajing Sun is 2.20 and Hayato Matsuoka is 1.61, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

What is the head-to-head between Fajing Sun and Hayato Matsuoka?

They have met 3 times and Fajing Sun leads 2-1.

Who will win Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka?

Our model makes it Fajing Sun to win at 2.20 (Lean confidence).

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