Luca Nardi v August Holmgren
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTA. Holmgren is 3-7 over the last ten and 15-15 on hard this season. L. Nardi is 3-7 over the last ten and 10-11 on hard this season. The head to head is L. Nardi 2-0.
The pick is A. Holmgren to win. We make it a 48% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.08 or bigger. At 1.93 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Nardi | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| 151 | Ranking | 236 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| LLLLW | Last 5 | LLWWL |
| -2.2 | V the odds | -2.9 |
| 14-19 | Season | 29-30 |
| 10-11 | Hard 2026 | 15-15 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 7d | Days rest | 7d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-07 | Helsinki Challenger Men | L. NardivA. Holmgren | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-11-16 | Kobe Challenger Men | A. HolmgrenvL. Nardi | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Nardi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Olbia | Hard | A. Holmgren | 2 - 1 | 1.94 | 50% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | Clay | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 0 | 2.33 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | F. Cina | 0 - 1 RET | 2.65 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-07-11 | Umag | clay | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | 1.74 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-06-24 | Wimbledon | Grass | O. Virtanen | 0 - 2 | 3.78 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-06-22 | Wimbledon | Grass | R. Noguchi | 0 - 2 | 1.60 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-06-15 | Nottingham | Grass | R. Bertola | 1 - 2 | 1.60 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-06-14 | Nottingham | Grass | G. Hussey | 2 - 0 | 1.52 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-06-13 | Nottingham | Grass | O. Weightman | 2 - 1 | 1.11 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-06-10 | Ilkley | Grass | J. Fearnley | 1 - 2 | 2.96 | 67% | LOST |
A. Holmgren — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Olbia | Hard | L. Nardi | 2 - 1 | 1.93 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | Clay | P. Martinez | 1 - 2 | 1.88 | 51% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Porto | Clay | H. Rocha | 0 - 2 | 3.05 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Porto | Clay | A. Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | 2.38 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | B. Bonzi | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-07 | Istanbul | Clay | V. Ursu | 0 - 2 | 1.20 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | Mallorca | Hard | F. Balshaw | 0 - 2 | 1.93 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | A. Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-07-29 | Vancouver | Hard | B. Shick | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-24 | Winnipeg | Hard | L. Draxl | 1 - 2 | 2.16 | 56% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Luca Nardi or August Holmgren?
August Holmgren is favourite at 1.93, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi is 1.94 and August Holmgren is 1.93, the prices we recorded for the Olbia match.
What is the head-to-head between Luca Nardi and August Holmgren?
They have met 2 times and Luca Nardi leads 2-0.
Who will win Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren?
Our model makes it August Holmgren to win at 1.93 (Lean confidence).