Lorenzo Carboni v Mackenzie McDonald
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidVOIDL. Carboni is 4-6 over the last ten and 5-7 on hard this season. M. McDonald is 3-7 over the last ten and 11-15 on hard this season. M. McDonald took a medical timeout on 2026-10-12.
The pick is L. Carboni to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.76 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Carboni | M. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| 452 | Ranking | 167 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| LLWWL | Last 5 | LLLWW |
| -1.6 | V the odds | -1.8 |
| 28-30 | Season | 17-26 |
| 5-7 | Hard 2026 | 11-15 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 5d | Days rest | 6d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Carboni — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Olbia | Hard | M. McDonald | 1 - 1 RET | 4.41 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-10-07 | M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 9 | Clay | F. Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | 2.12 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | M25 Zaragoza | Clay | S. Jong | 0 - 2 | 2.45 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | M25 Zaragoza | Clay | J. Barranco Cosano | 2 - 0 | 2.46 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | M25 Zaragoza | Clay | J. Casas Blasi | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 8 | Clay | D. Michalski | 2 - 0 | 3.31 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 8 | Clay | G. Pennaforti | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 8 | Clay | T. C. Baragiola Mordini | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 7 | Clay | M. Sciahbasi | 1 - 2 | 1.48 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | Seville | Clay | G. Campana Lee | 2 - 0 | 1.99 | 52% | LOST |
M. McDonald — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Olbia | Hard | L. Carboni | 1 - 1 RET | 1.24 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-10-06 | Braga | Clay | R. Nijboer | 1 - 2 | 2.14 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | T. Samuel | 2 - 0 | 3.25 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | D. Svrcina | 2 - 1 | 2.16 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | T. Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | 1.58 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | S. Napolitano | 0 - 2 | 1.20 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | 2.59 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | Y. Wu | 1 - 2 | 2.67 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-07-28 | Washington | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | 4.15 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-07-26 | Washington | Hard | T. Svajda | 0 - 2 | 1.56 | 62% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Lorenzo Carboni or Mackenzie McDonald?
Mackenzie McDonald is favourite at 1.24, which is a 78% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Lorenzo Carboni is 4.41 and Mackenzie McDonald is 1.24, the prices we recorded for the Olbia match.
Who will win Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model makes it Lorenzo Carboni to win a set (Solid confidence).