Juncheng Shang v Sebastian Baez
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongLOSTS. Baez is 5-5 over the last ten and 23-12 on hard this season. J. Shang is 2-8 over the last ten and 5-9 on hard this season.
The pick is S. Baez to win. We make it a 49% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.04 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| J. Shang | S. Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| 227 | Ranking | 51 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| LLLLW | Last 5 | LLWLL |
| -2.8 | V the odds | +0.3 |
| 5-9 | Season | 34-26 |
| 5-9 | Hard 2026 | 23-12 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 7d | Days rest | 7d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | J. ShangvS. Baez | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
J. Shang — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | 1.67 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.47 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | M. Trungelliti | 2 - 3 | 1.49 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | L. Sonego | 0 - 2 | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | L. Darderi | 2 - 1 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | 3.86 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-08-02 | Montreal | Hard | D. Vallejo | 0 - 2 | 1.68 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | K. Nishikori | 2 - 1 | 1.69 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-02-24 | Dubai | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 5.20 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 4.09 | 76% | LOST |
S. Baez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | J. Shang | 2 - 1 | 2.33 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Brooksby | 0 - 2 | 2.32 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | 6.53 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | H. Grenier | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1 - 0 RET | 1.67 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Cancun 2 | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cancun 2 | Hard | L. Harris | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cancun 2 | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 0 | 1.62 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cancun 2 | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | 3.70 | 74% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Juncheng Shang or Sebastian Baez?
Juncheng Shang is favourite at 1.67, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez?
Juncheng Shang is 1.67 and Sebastian Baez is 2.33, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez?
They have met 1 time and Juncheng Shang leads 1-0.
Who will win Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model makes it Sebastian Baez to win at 2.33 (Strong confidence).