Alex De Minaur v Mariano Navone
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTM. Navone is 6-4 over the last ten and 13-11 on hard this season. A. De Minaur is 7-3 over the last ten and 16-10 on hard this season. The head to head is A. De Minaur 1-0.
The pick is M. Navone to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.78 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. De Minaur | M. Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ranking | 44 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | WWLLW |
| +0.2 | V the odds | +1.6 |
| 36-17 | Season | 28-21 |
| 16-10 | Hard 2026 | 13-11 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 4d | Days rest | 28d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Defending semi | Fitness | 28d out |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | A. De MinaurvM. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-10-29 | ATP Paris | A. De MinaurvM. Navone | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.60 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | M. Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | 1.07 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 3 | 1.03 | 94% | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | 2.48 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Fery | 0 - 2 | 1.23 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | 1.39 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | 1.52 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | J. Duckworth | 0 - 2 | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
M. Navone — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | 4.25 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | 2.57 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | N. Djokovic | 3 - 2 | 5.59 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | 1.64 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Blockx | 2 - 0 | 2.24 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | 2.19 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | 3.92 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | V. Vacherot | 1 - 2 | 2.35 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-08-03 | Montreal | Hard | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | 2.82 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-07-23 | Kitzbuhel | clay | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex De Minaur or Mariano Navone?
Alex De Minaur is favourite at 1.26, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone?
Alex De Minaur is 1.26 and Mariano Navone is 4.25, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex De Minaur and Mariano Navone?
They have met 2 times and Alex De Minaur leads 2-0.
Who will win Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone?
Our model makes it Mariano Navone to win a set (Lean confidence).