THE TENNIS TRADER
MONDAY 05 OCTOBERMATCHES 159EVENTS 13ALERTS 78
ChallengerClayVillena2026-10-04 15:30

Joshua Sheehy v Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanLOST
J. Sheehy to win2.87
Worth backing at 2.70 or bigger · our chance 37% · market 33/67, us 37/63

J. Sheehy is 2-8 over the last ten and 1-3 on clay this season. I. Marrero Curbelo is 4-6 over the last ten and 8-7 on clay this season.

The pick is J. Sheehy to win. We make it a 37% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.70 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

J. SheehyI. Marrero Curbelo
687Ranking481
2-8Last 104-6
LLWLLLast 5LLLWL
-V the odds-0.4
11-17Season31-18
1-3Clay 20268-7
0Last 7 days1
21dDays rest7d
0Wins here0
21d outFitnessClear
Head to head
First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

J. Sheehy2.8733%
I. Marrero CurbeloFAV1.4467%
Market says67% Curbelo

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

J. Sheehy0
I. Marrero Curbelo1
Head to head1 meeting
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-04VillenaJ. SheehyvI. Marrero Curbelo1 - 2

This season & this event

J. Sheehy
I. Marrero Curbelo
11-18
1-4
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on clay
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
32-19
9-8
Did not play
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Joshua Sheehy
USA
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Spain
687
29
USA
0–1
0
0–1
—
—
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
481
28
Spain
9–9
0
1–3
8–6
—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

J. Sheehy — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-04VillenaClayI. Marrero Curbelo1 - 22.8767%LOST
2026-09-13RennesHard (Indoor)P. Zahraj2 - 0——LOST
2026-08-24Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - QualificationHardE. Zhu2 - 0——LOST
2026-08-23Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - QualificationHardL. Britto0 - 1 RET——WON
2026-08-03LexingtonHardA. Shelbayh2 - 1——LOST
2026-07-27VancouverHardR. Tokuda1 - 2——LOST
2026-07-19WinnipegHardE. Winter2 - 1——LOST
2026-07-13LincolnHardC. Langmo2 - 1——LOST
2026-07-12LincolnHardK. Giese0 - 2——WON
2026-07-08M25 Dallas, TXHardS. Gorzny0 - 2——LOST

I. Marrero Curbelo — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-05VillenaClayP. Henning2 - 03.3873%LOST
2026-10-04VillenaClayJ. Sheehy1 - 21.4467%WON
2026-09-27PortoClayL. Potenza1 - 22.2559%LOST
2026-09-07IstanbulClayM. Kasnikowski1 - 2——LOST
2026-08-31MallorcaHardO. Paldanius1 - 0 RET——LOST
2026-08-26Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - QualificationHardB. Bicknell2 - 1——WON
2026-08-26Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - QualificationHardA. Andrade0 - 2——LOST
2026-08-17Kingston (Jamaica)HardL. Andrade da Silva0 - 2——LOST
2026-08-16Kingston (Jamaica)HardL. Seidman2 - 1——WON
2026-08-07Grodzisk MazowieckiHardM. Erhard2 - 0——LOST

Common questions

Who is favourite, Joshua Sheehy or Ivan Marrero Curbelo?

Ivan Marrero Curbelo is favourite at 1.44, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Joshua Sheehy vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?

Joshua Sheehy is 2.87 and Ivan Marrero Curbelo is 1.44, the prices we recorded for the Villena match.

What is the head-to-head between Joshua Sheehy and Ivan Marrero Curbelo?

They have met 1 time and Ivan Marrero Curbelo leads 1-0.

Who will win Joshua Sheehy vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?

Our model makes it Joshua Sheehy to win at 2.87 (Lean confidence).

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