THE TENNIS TRADER
MONDAY 05 OCTOBERMATCHES 159EVENTS 13ALERTS 78
ChallengerClayVillena2026-10-04 11:00

Mathys Erhard v Oliver Tarvet

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanWON
O. Tarvet to win 2-01.75
Price too short today - wait for 2.00 or bigger · our chance 50% · market 26/74, us 21/79

O. Tarvet is 8-2 over the last ten and 0-1 on clay this season. M. Erhard is 5-5 over the last ten and 17-13 on clay this season. M. Erhard took a medical timeout on 2026-09-28. M. Erhard retired from a match in the last month.

The pick is O. Tarvet to win 2-0. We make it a 50% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.00 or bigger. At 1.75 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. ErhardO. Tarvet
346Ranking-
5-5Last 108-2
LWLLWLast 5LWWWW
-0.7V the odds-
32-26Season22-6
17-13Clay 20260-1
2Last 7 days0
6dDays rest37d
0Wins here0
MTOretiredFitness37d out
Head to head
First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Erhard3.5026%
O. TarvetFAV1.2374%
Market says74% Tarvet

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Erhard0
O. Tarvet1
Head to head1 meeting
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-04VillenaM. ErhardvO. Tarvet0 - 2

This season & this event

M. Erhard
O. Tarvet
32-27
17-14
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on clay
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
24-6
2-1
Did not play
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Mathys Erhard
France
Oliver Tarvet
United Kingdom
346
24
France
31–24
0
11–9
20–15
—
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
335
22
United Kingdom
22–9
2
18–8
—
4–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Erhard — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-04VillenaClayO. Tarvet0 - 23.5074%LOST
2026-09-28Mouilleron-Le-CaptifHard (Indoor)A. Barroso Campos1 - 21.2475%LOST
2026-09-27Mouilleron-Le-CaptifHard (Indoor)P. Theate2 - 01.0490%WON
2026-09-20St. TropezHardP. Zahraj2 - 1——LOST
2026-09-09CassisHardD. Glinka0 - 1 RET——LOST
2026-09-08CassisHardB. Pietri0 - 2——WON
2026-09-02MallorcaHardI. Montes-De La Torre2 - 1——LOST
2026-09-01MallorcaHardC. Broom1 - 2——WON
2026-08-31MallorcaHardA. Shepp0 - 2——WON
2026-08-08Grodzisk MazowieckiHardJ. J. Schwaerzler1 - 2——LOST

O. Tarvet — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-05VillenaClayD. Dedura0 - 21.2773%WON
2026-10-04VillenaClayM. Erhard0 - 21.2374%WON
2026-08-28Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - QualificationHardC. Broom2 - 1——LOST
2026-08-27Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - QualificationHardE. Hudd2 - 0——WON
2026-08-26Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - QualificationHardO. Bonding2 - 0——WON
2026-08-25Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - QualificationHardM. Pucinelli de Almeida0 - 2——WON
2026-08-22Roehampton (United Kingdom)HardL. Poullain2 - 0——WON
2026-08-21Roehampton (United Kingdom)HardA. Matusevich1 - 2——WON
2026-08-20Roehampton (United Kingdom)HardC. Broom2 - 1——WON
2026-08-19Roehampton (United Kingdom)HardM. Pucinelli de Almeida1 - 2——WON

Common questions

Who is favourite, Mathys Erhard or Oliver Tarvet?

Oliver Tarvet is favourite at 1.23, which is a 74% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Mathys Erhard vs Oliver Tarvet?

Mathys Erhard is 3.50 and Oliver Tarvet is 1.23, the prices we recorded for the Villena match.

What is the head-to-head between Mathys Erhard and Oliver Tarvet?

They have met 1 time and Oliver Tarvet leads 1-0.

Who will win Mathys Erhard vs Oliver Tarvet?

Our model makes it Oliver Tarvet to win 2-0 at 1.75 (Lean confidence).

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