THE TENNIS TRADER
MONDAY 05 OCTOBERMATCHES 159EVENTS 13ALERTS 78
ChallengerClayVillena2026-10-04 14:00

Charles Chen v Petr Nesterov

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanWON
C. Chen to win a set (set handicap +1.5)
Worth backing at 2.49 or bigger · our chance 40% · market 11/89, us 13/87

C. Chen is 0-10 over the last ten and 0-1 on clay this season. P. Nesterov is 5-5 over the last ten and 31-15 on clay this season.

The pick is C. Chen to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 40% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.49 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

C. ChenP. Nesterov
-Ranking428
0-10Last 105-5
LLLLLLast 5LWWLL
-0.3V the odds-0.7
2-12Season50-22
0-1Clay 202631-15
0Last 7 days3
11dDays rest5d
0Wins here0
ClearFitnessClear
Head to head
First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

C. Chen8.6811%
P. NesterovFAV1.0789%
Market says89% Nesterov

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

C. Chen0
P. Nesterov1
Head to head1 meeting
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-04VillenaC. ChenvP. Nesterov1 - 2

This season & this event

C. Chen
P. Nesterov
2-13
0-2
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on clay
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
52-22
33-15
Did not play
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Charles Chen
USA
Petr Nesterov
Bulgaria
2
56
USA
2–2
2
2–2
2–2
2–2
Ranking
Age
Country
2 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
428
23
Bulgaria
22–8
1
20–8
2–0
—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

C. Chen — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-04VillenaClayP. Nesterov1 - 28.6889%LOST
2026-09-23M15 Monastir 32HardA. Colombo1 - 23.5073%LOST
2026-09-16M15 Monastir 31HardD. Salvestre0 - 2——LOST
2026-06-30M15 GetxoClayS. Fita Juan2 - 0——LOST
2026-06-10M15 Kayseri 4HardF. J. Rivadeneira Gallegos1 - 2——LOST
2026-06-04M15 Kayseri 3HardI. Marrero Curbelo2 - 1——LOST
2026-05-20M15 Hurghada 5 (Egypt)HardR. E. Mohamed Sherif E.0 - 2——LOST
2026-05-13M25 Hurghada (Egypt)HardB. Atlangeriev0 - 2——LOST
2026-05-06M15 Hurghada 4 (Egypt)HardP. Alam2 - 0——LOST
2026-04-14M15 CeutaHardA. Reco0 - 2——LOST

P. Nesterov — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-10-05VillenaClayH. Barton1 - 22.3860%WON
2026-10-04VillenaClayC. Chen1 - 21.0789%WON
2026-09-29PortoClayG. Marques2 - 11.4666%LOST
2026-09-28PortoClayM. Topo2 - 0——WON
2026-09-27PortoClayG. Tabacco2 - 1——WON
2026-09-21Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - QualificationClayC. Taberner2 - 1——LOST
2026-09-01Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - QualificationClayY. Milev1 - 2——LOST
2026-08-12M25 MuttenzClayD. Sakellaridis2 - 1——LOST
2026-08-09Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria)ClayG. Piraino2 - 0——LOST
2026-08-08Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria)ClayR. M. Papoe2 - 0——WON

Common questions

Who is favourite, Charles Chen or Petr Nesterov?

Petr Nesterov is favourite at 1.07, which is a 89% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Charles Chen vs Petr Nesterov?

Charles Chen is 8.68 and Petr Nesterov is 1.07, the prices we recorded for the Villena match.

What is the head-to-head between Charles Chen and Petr Nesterov?

They have met 1 time and Petr Nesterov leads 1-0.

Who will win Charles Chen vs Petr Nesterov?

Our model makes it Charles Chen to win a set (Lean confidence).

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