Arthur Fils v Pavel Kotov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTP. Kotov is 8-2 over the last ten and 31-9 on hard this season. A. Fils is 8-2 over the last ten and 30-9 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Fils 1-0.
The pick is P. Kotov to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 44% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.29 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Fils | P. Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ranking | 182 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | WWWLW |
| +0.4 | V the odds | +2.2 |
| 37-13 | Season | 32-13 |
| 30-9 | Hard 2026 | 31-9 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 6d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 3 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | A. FilsvP. Kotov | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-10-05 | ATP Shanghai | P. KotovvA. Fils | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Fils — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Kotov | 2 - 0 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | 1.25 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | 1.36 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | 1.16 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 1 | 1.19 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 1 | 1.18 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 75% | WON |
P. Kotov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | 7.76 | 88% | LOST |
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | 2.86 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | 1.64 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Damm | 1 - 2 | 2.95 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | 1.61 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Castelnuovo | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | M. Sharipov | 0 - 2 | 1.93 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | 1.77 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | R. Noguchi | 2 - 0 | 1.39 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-16 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | A. Santillan | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 75% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Arthur Fils or Pavel Kotov?
Arthur Fils is favourite at 1.10, which is a 88% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov?
Arthur Fils is 1.10 and Pavel Kotov is 7.76, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Arthur Fils and Pavel Kotov?
They have met 2 times and Arthur Fils leads 2-0.
Who will win Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model makes it Pavel Kotov to win a set (Lean confidence).