Matteo Berrettini v Brandon Nakashima
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidWONB. Nakashima is 6-4 over the last ten and 30-15 on hard this season. M. Berrettini is 5-5 over the last ten and 9-9 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Berrettini 1-0.
The pick is B. Nakashima to win. We make it a 66% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.51 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Berrettini | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| 47 | Ranking | 17 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLWLW | Last 5 | LWLWL |
| -0.6 | V the odds | +0.3 |
| 22-18 | Season | 36-20 |
| 9-9 | Hard 2026 | 30-15 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 3d | Days rest | 10d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Shanghai | M. BerrettinivB. Nakashima | 0 - 2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | B. NakashimavM. Berrettini | 1 - 3 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Berrettini — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | 2.40 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Kovacevic | 1 - 2 | 1.52 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 0 - 2 | 1.62 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | 2.32 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 3 | 1.57 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Wawrinka | 3 - 0 | 1.27 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | 2.55 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | 1.78 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-03 | Montreal | Hard | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-07-04 | Wimbledon | Grass | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | 1.62 | 60% | LOST |
B. Nakashima — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 1 | 1.87 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Berrettini | 0 - 2 | 1.64 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | 1.48 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | J. Mensik | 1 - 2 | 2.27 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 0 - 3 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Baez | 3 - 0 | 1.14 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | 2.62 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | 1.60 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 | 2.25 | 57% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Matteo Berrettini or Brandon Nakashima?
Brandon Nakashima is favourite at 1.64, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima?
Matteo Berrettini is 2.40 and Brandon Nakashima is 1.64, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model makes it Brandon Nakashima to win at 1.64 (Solid confidence).