Rei Sakamoto v Andrey Rublev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidWONR. Sakamoto is 7-3 over the last ten and 30-17 on hard this season. A. Rublev is 6-4 over the last ten and 18-13 on hard this season.
The pick is R. Sakamoto to win. We make it a 37% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.73 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| R. Sakamoto | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Ranking | 24 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWWLW | Last 5 | LWWLW |
| +0.6 | V the odds | -0.5 |
| 38-22 | Season | 35-21 |
| 30-17 | Hard 2026 | 18-13 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 3d | Days rest | 6d |
| 3 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Shanghai | R. SakamotovA. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
R. Sakamoto — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | 3.13 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 3.30 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | 1.47 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | 2.24 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | S. C. Hong | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | A. Shepp | 0 - 2 | 1.13 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Nam Ji | 0 - 2 | 1.06 | 90% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | 4.14 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 3 | 1.69 | 57% | WON |
A. Rublev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | 1.38 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | 2.09 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 1 | 1.71 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 2 | 1.57 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 2.81 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Jacquet | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | H. Gaston | 1 - 2 | 1.25 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Hijikata | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 3 - 1 | 1.67 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | O. Virtanen | 2 - 3 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Rei Sakamoto or Andrey Rublev?
Andrey Rublev is favourite at 1.38, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto is 3.30 and Andrey Rublev is 1.38, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Rei Sakamoto and Andrey Rublev?
They have met 1 time and Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0.
Who will win Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model makes it Rei Sakamoto to win at 3.24 (Solid confidence).