Alexander Bublik v Tomas Machac
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONA. Bublik is 5-5 over the last ten and 12-10 on hard this season. T. Machac is 4-6 over the last ten and 11-11 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Bublik 2-0.
The pick is A. Bublik to win. We make it a 62% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.62 or bigger. At 1.53 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Bublik | T. Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ranking | 75 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LLLWW | Last 5 | WLLWL |
| -0.8 | V the odds | -0.8 |
| 29-22 | Season | 16-15 |
| 12-10 | Hard 2026 | 11-11 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 10d | Days rest | 3d |
| 0 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Shanghai | A. BublikvT. Machac | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Halle | A. BublikvT. Machac | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-02-26 | ATP Dubai | A. BublikvT. Machac | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Bublik — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | 2.04 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Machac | 2 - 0 | 1.51 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | J. Mensik | 0 - 2 | 2.56 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 2.51 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 2 - 3 | 2.65 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | A. Mannarino | 3 - 0 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J.J. Wolf | 3 - 1 | 1.45 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-07-25 | Kitzbuhel | clay | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-07-24 | Kitzbuhel | clay | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | 1.60 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-07-23 | Kitzbuhel | clay | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 58% | WON |
T. Machac — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | 2.73 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Zhang | 1 - 2 | 1.43 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | A. Gea | 0 - 2 | 2.16 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | T. Samuel | 3 - 0 | 2.31 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | M. Rottgering | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 0 - 2 | 2.04 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-05-27 | French Open | Clay | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | 7.74 | 87% | LOST |
| 2026-05-24 | French Open | Clay | Z. Bergs | 3 - 0 | 1.72 | 56% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alexander Bublik or Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik is favourite at 1.51, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik is 1.51 and Tomas Machac is 2.73, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Alexander Bublik and Tomas Machac?
They have met 3 times and Alexander Bublik leads 3-0.
Who will win Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac?
Our model makes it Alexander Bublik to win at 1.53 (Lean confidence).