ChallengerHardNingbo2026-10-29 03:00

Yuta Shimizu v Hsiou Hsu Yu

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

Y. H. Hsu to win1.76

Price too short today - wait for 1.89 or bigger · our chance 53% · market 46/54, us 47/53

Y. H. Hsu is 6-4 over the last ten and 26-16 on hard this season. Y. Shimizu is 5-5 over the last ten and 24-21 on hard this season. The head to head is Y. Shimizu 2-3.

The pick is Y. H. Hsu to win. We make it a 53% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.89 or bigger. At 1.76 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

Y. Shimizu		Y. H. Hsu
393	Ranking	296
5-5	Last 10	6-4
WLLWL	Last 5	WLLLL
-0.1	V the odds	-0.4
24-21	Season	31-24
24-21	Hard 2026	26-16
1	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-3

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

Y. Shimizu2.1046%

Y. H. HsuFAV1.7654%

Market says54% Hsu

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Y. ShimizuWLLWL

Y. H. HsuWLLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

Y. Shimizu2

Y. H. Hsu3

Head to head5 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-03-26	Yokkaichi	Y. H. HsuvY. Shimizu	5-7 6-3 1-6
2025-11-10	Kobe	Y. ShimizuvY. H. Hsu	6-7 4-6
2023-11-09	Matsuyama Challenger Men	Y. ShimizuvY. H. Hsu	4-6 3-6
2022-06-17	M25 Wichita, KS	Y. ShimizuvH. Hsu Yu	3-6 6-2 4-6
2020-01-12	M15 Hong Kong	H. Hsu YuvY. Shimizu	7-5 6-7 6-7

This season & this event

Y. Shimizu

Y. H. Hsu

24-21

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

31-24

26-16

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

393

Japan

23–20

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

296

Taiwan

30–23

25–15

3–3

2–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

Y. Shimizu — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Ningbo	Hard	M. Poljicak	1.82	53%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-4 ShimizuPoljicakPoints won53%47%Serve points won72%69%Return points won31%28%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved1 of 12 of 4Aces213Double faults31
2026-10-18	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Purcell	—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 ShimizuPurcellPoints won38%62%Serve points won50%74%Return points won26%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved1 of 54 of 4Aces111Double faults11
2026-10-01	Jingshan	Hard	B. Tomic	2.46	61%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 6-7 ShimizuTomicPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%71%Return points won29%36%Games held13 of 1614 of 16Break points saved2 of 57 of 9Aces86Double faults30
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	3.00	69%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 ShimizuSakellaridisPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 11 of 4Aces512Double faults34
2026-09-15	Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	P. Sekulic	1.60	60%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-2 5-7 ShimizuSekulicPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%65%Return points won35%42%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 95 of 9Aces96Double faults59
2026-09-12	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	A. Weber	1.62	60%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 ShimizuWeberPoints won45%55%Serve points won57%66%Return points won34%43%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved6 of 92 of 3Aces26Double faults32
2026-09-11	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	H. Moriya	1.32	73%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 7-6 ShimizuMoriyaPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%63%Return points won37%40%Games held14 of 1814 of 18Break points saved13 of 1712 of 16Aces147Double faults75
2026-09-09	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	K. Samrej	1.46	66%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 ShimizuSamrejPoints won57%43%Serve points won81%65%Return points won35%19%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces97Double faults22
2026-09-08	Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	A. Vishal Balsekar	1.07	87%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 ShimizuBalsekarPoints won64%36%Serve points won69%41%Return points won59%31%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 05 of 10Aces30Double faults21
2026-08-18	Roehampton (United Kingdom)	Hard	A. Matusevich	2.13	55%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 ShimizuMatusevichPoints won45%55%Serve points won52%62%Return points won38%48%Games held6 of 118 of 11Break points saved1 of 63 of 6Aces79Double faults46

Y. H. Hsu — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Ningbo	Hard	K. Smith		2.30	58%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-5 7-6 HsuSmithPoints won49%51%Serve points won69%70%Return points won30%31%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved2 of 311 of 12Aces511Double faults22
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	J. Cui		2.20	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 HsuCuiPoints won42%58%Serve points won48%65%Return points won35%52%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved2 of 71 of 3Aces66Double faults01
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	O. Wallin		1.82	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 2-6 5-7 HsuWallinPoints won50%50%Serve points won55%56%Return points won44%45%Games held8 of 159 of 14Break points saved9 of 166 of 11Aces68Double faults22
2026-09-08	Shanghai	Hard	I. Ivashka		1.93	50%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 HsuIvashkaPoints won37%63%Serve points won56%88%Return points won12%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces14Double faults02
2026-09-02	Zhangjiagang	Hard	J. K. Trotter		1.52	63%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 HsuTrotterPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held7 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 53 of 5Aces513Double faults03
2026-09-01	Zhangjiagang	Hard	E. Ymer	RET	1.59	60%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-5 HsuYmerPoints won53%47%Serve points won75%63%Return points won37%25%Games held10 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 15 of 6Aces67Double faults13
2026-08-23	M25 Taipei	Hard	M. Dellavedova		1.37	69%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HsuDellavedovaPoints won60%40%Serve points won76%54%Return points won46%24%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 32 of 5
2026-08-22	M25 Taipei	Hard	M. Imamura		1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 HsuImamuraPoints won60%40%Serve points won65%44%Return points won56%35%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved1 of 13 of 8
2026-08-21	M25 Taipei	Hard	R. Matsuda		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 HsuMatsudaPoints won57%43%Serve points won63%57%Return points won43%37%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved7 of 70 of 3
2026-08-20	M25 Taipei	Hard	K. S. Chen		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 HsuChenPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%53%Return points won47%33%Games held8 of 106 of 11Break points saved2 of 47 of 11

Common questions

Who is favourite, Yuta Shimizu or Hsiou Hsu Yu?

Hsiou Hsu Yu is favourite at 1.76, which is a 54% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Yuta Shimizu vs Hsiou Hsu Yu?

Yuta Shimizu is 2.10 and Hsiou Hsu Yu is 1.76, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

What is the head-to-head between Yuta Shimizu and Hsiou Hsu Yu?

They have met 5 times and Hsiou Hsu Yu leads 3-2.

Who will win Yuta Shimizu vs Hsiou Hsu Yu?

Our model makes it Hsiou Hsu Yu to win at 1.76 (Lean confidence).

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