Tommy Paul v Daniel Vallejo Adolfo
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongLOSTD. Vallejo is 7-3 over the last ten and 15-9 on hard this season. T. Paul is 6-4 over the last ten and 25-14 on hard this season. The head to head is T. Paul 2-0.
The pick is D. Vallejo to win. We make it a 42% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.40 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Paul | D. Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ranking | 56 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LLWWW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| +0.0 | V the odds | +2.0 |
| 40-19 | Season | 48-23 |
| 25-14 | Hard 2026 | 15-9 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 10d | Days rest | 3d |
| 0 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | T. PaulvD. Vallejo | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | T. PaulvD. Vallejo | 2 - 1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Houston | D. VallejovT. Paul | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | 1.49 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | 1.35 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | 4.85 | 80% | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | 1.55 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1 - 3 | 1.21 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | C. Wong | 1 - 3 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 1 - 2 | 1.66 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.36 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 1 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | 1.89 | 51% | WON |
D. Vallejo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | 2.80 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Royer | 2 - 0 | 1.73 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 0 | 3.28 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Berrettini | 0 - 2 | 2.46 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 4.67 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | 2.44 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 1 | 2.50 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | J. Cui | 1 - 2 | 1.37 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 1 | 1.36 | 69% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Tommy Paul or Daniel Vallejo Adolfo?
Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.49, which is a 65% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Daniel Vallejo Adolfo?
Tommy Paul is 1.49 and Daniel Vallejo Adolfo is 2.80, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Tommy Paul and Daniel Vallejo Adolfo?
They have met 3 times and Tommy Paul leads 3-0.
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Daniel Vallejo Adolfo?
Our model makes it Daniel Vallejo Adolfo to win at 2.80 (Strong confidence).